Fertility effects of child benefits

Riphahn, Regina T.; Wiynck, Frederik

doi:10.1007/s00148-017-0647-y

Cited by 44 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Furthermore, our data do not allow us making any conclusions about completed fertility of the cohorts affected by 2007 family policy reform yet. Therefore, our results are more in line with studies observing only modest financial effects on fertility [Parr, 2011;Riphahn, Wiynck, 2017], or interpreting the existing fertility increase in terms of compensatory growth or fertility model changes [Zakharov, 2013;Frejka, Zakharov, 2014]. In terms of the demographic effect of the pronatalist policy in Russia, we interpret our results as evidence that the introduced programs of financial support, although rather generous, cannot provide the increase in fertility rates inscribed in national programs and plans.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

More Money — More Births? Estimating Effects of 2007 Family Policy Changes on Probability of Second and Subsequent Births in Russia

Svetlana

Sinyavskaya²

2021

MONITORING OF PUBLIC OPINION

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From 2007 to 2015 total fertility rate in Russia increased from 1.42 to 1.78, following a long period of decline in 1990-1999 and stagnation in 2000-2006. Politicians attribute this growth to a package of pro-natalist policy measures introduced in 2007 and particularly to the maternity (family) capital program, the most well-known innovation of the 2007 reform. Existing studies, although sparse, have not actually proven this point of view clearly yet. This paper aims to reveal whether the pro-natalist measures of 2007 have influenced probability of second and consequent births in Russia. Since in 2007 several family policy measures were introduced simultaneously, and the authors estimate their cumulative effect applying a set of binary logistic regressions on the panel of Russian Generations and Gender Survey data collected in 2004, 2007, and 2011. The study reveals that the probability of second and subsequent births before the introduction of policy measures does not differ significantly from that observed after it. The authors find no effect of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and consequent births in Russia. The data shows some signs of selective influence of the 2007 policy changes on women with lower human capital and incomes, however, further studies on bigger samples are needed to prove this fact. The study extends the academic discussion and adds to the pool of empirical evidence on the pro-natalist policy effects on fertility. By demonstrating no significant effects of Russian 2007 family policy measures the paper contributes to the overcoming of existing publication bias in the field. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful for the support granted to the research within the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE).

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

More Money — More Births? Estimating Effects of 2007 Family Policy Changes on Probability of Second and Subsequent Births in Russia

Svetlana

Sinyavskaya²

2021

MONITORING OF PUBLIC OPINION

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“…With respect to the price effect, we contribute to a recent body of work that attempts to estimate the causal effect of direct birth-related cash transfers on fertility, exploiting natural experiments in several different countries (Milligan 2005;Cohen, Dehejia, and Romanov 2013;González 2013;Riphahn and Wiynck 2017). These studies find evidence consistent with a positive and significant price effect on overall fertility, with benefit elasticities around 1-2%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions

González

Trommlerová

2021

J. Human Resources

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We study the impact of a universal child benefit on fertility, identifying separately the effects driven by conceptions and those by abortions, and analyzing the potentially asymmetric impact of the benefit's introduction and its later cancellation. We focus on a generous lump-sum maternity allowance that was introduced in Spain in 2007 and then eliminated in 2010. Using administrative, population-level data, we create a panel data set of the 50 Spanish provinces, with monthly data on birth rates and weekly data on abortion rates between 2000 and 2017. Our identification is based on the timing of the introduction and cancellation of the policy (both announcement and implementation), from which we infer when the changes in births and abortions can be expected. We find that the introduction of the policy led to a 3% increase in birth rates, due to both a decrease in abortions and an increase in conceptions. The announcement of the cancellation led to a transitory increase in birth rates just before the benefit termination was implemented, driven by a short-term decrease in abortions. The actual cancellation then led to a 6% decline in birth rates. A heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive fertility effect of the benefit's introduction was driven by high-skilled parents, while the negative impact of the cancellation was larger among low-skilled and out-of-labor-force parents, and in poorer regions and areas that were more affected by the 2008 recession. We also find suggestive evidence that the child benefit had both a timing ("tempo") effect, such that some women had children earlier, and a level ("quantum") effect, where some women had more children than they would have had otherwise. JEL Codes: J13, J18

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“…( 2013 ), Bastian ( 2017 ) Positive effect of increased tax benefits in Hoynes et al. ( 2015 ), Bastian ( 2020 ), Bastian and Lochner ( 2020 ) Not significant in Riphahn and Wiynck ( 2017 ) Not significant in Milligan and Stabile ( 2009 ) Availability of subsidised/free child-care Public education 0–3 years old Increase mothers’ labour market attachment Positive effect Mixed evidence Childcare voucher Haeck et al. ( 2015 ), Bettendorf et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Work and children in Spain: challenges and opportunities for equality between men and women

Hupkau

Ruiz-Valenzuela

2021

SERIEs

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Over the past decades, Spain has seen a striking convergence between women’s and men’s participation in the labour market. However, this convergence has stalled since the early 2010s. We show that women still fare worse in several important labour market dimensions. Gender inequalities are further aggravated among people with children. Women with children under 16 are much more likely to be unemployed, work part-time or on temporary contracts than men with children of the same age. We show that it is unlikely that preferences alone can account for these gaps. A review of the evidence shows that family policies, such as paternity leave expansions, financial incentives in the form of tax credits for working mothers and subsidised or free childcare for very young children, could help reduce the motherhood penalty. However, such policies are likely to be more effective if combined with advances in breaking up traditional gender roles.

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Fertility effects of child benefits

Cited by 44 publications

References 29 publications

More Money — More Births? Estimating Effects of 2007 Family Policy Changes on Probability of Second and Subsequent Births in Russia

More Money — More Births? Estimating Effects of 2007 Family Policy Changes on Probability of Second and Subsequent Births in Russia

Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions

Work and children in Spain: challenges and opportunities for equality between men and women

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