Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden

Bujard, Martin; Andersson, Gunnar

doi:10.1007/s10680-023-09689-w

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The analysis shows a negative association between the initial vaccination rollout and fertility, whereas the completion of the full first vaccination course (usually consisting of two doses) is linked to fertility recovery. Similar to Bujard and Andersson (2024), we interpret this finding as a behavioural response to the perceived potential risks of vaccination for pregnant women. The decrease in fertility during the introduction of vaccination was probably due to an ‘anticipatory’ postponement of births, as some women decided to complete their vaccination course before becoming pregnant to minimize the risks of potential COVID-19 infection to their health and pregnancy outcomes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

“…In countries with higher levels of trust, stricter policies were linked with higher birth rates, partly explaining the temporary upturn in births observed, for example, in the Nordic countries, Germany, and the Netherlands. For some couples, especially in countries with stronger economic and family policy support, greater trust in government and less disruptive impacts of COVID-19-related policies on everyday life, this was a favourable time to have children despite the pandemic (Bujard & Andersson, 2024; Lappegård et al, 2023; Nisén et al, 2022). In spring 2021, the stringency of the containment measures was gradually reduced, putting an end to the previously observed fertility-enhancing cocooning effect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in the later phase of the pandemic, many higher-income countries experienced yet another shift in birth rates, an unexpected and robust downturn since early 2022 (Bujard & Andersson, 2024; Jasilioniene et al, 2024; Le Vu et al, 2023; Sobotka et al, 2023) that often persisted or even accelerated later in 2022 and in 2023 (HFD, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under favourable circumstances, especially when feeling economically and socially secure, some couples might have rethought their priorities and decided to have (a)nother child or, more likely, have their next planned child earlier (Berrington et al, 2022; Neyer et al, 2022; Lappegård et al, 2023). Bujard and Andersson (2024) term this a “cocooning effect” (less poetically, Kearney and Levine (2023) referred to people who were “stuck home” with their romantic partners). As lockdowns and other restrictions gradually eased, especially after the COVID-19 vaccine became widely available in March– June 2021, people resumed work-related, leisure and socializing activities outside the home.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A large body of literature shows that COVID-19 vaccination does not lead to infertility problems among women or men or to increased adverse pregnancy outcomes (Chen et al, 2021; Wang et al, 2023; Zaçe et al, 2022); vaccination also does not increase the risk of miscarriage among pregnant women (Rimmer et al, 2023). However, it is likely that vaccination affected birth rates indirectly: couples might had decided to temporarily put pregnancy plans on hold during vaccination to reduce any potential harm to their foetus’s health (Bujard & Andersson, 2024). Such a decision would not be completely irrational—when vaccines were developed and introduced in late 2020, national health organisations and associations were hesitant to recommend vaccination during pregnancy until conclusive evidence was reached that COVID-19 vaccines are perfectly safe for pregnant women.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty

Winkler-Dworak,

Zeman,

Sobotka

2024

Preprint

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BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in most higher-income countries first briefly declined and then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. STUDY FOCUS: We analyse monthly changes in total fertility rates in higher-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on 2022, when birth rates declined in most countries. We consider three broader sets of explanatory factors: economic uncertainty, policy interventions restricting mobility and social activities outside the home, and the role of vaccination programmes. STUDY DESIGN, DATA: This study uses population-wide data on monthly total fertility rates adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects provided in the Human Fertility Database (HFD, 2023). Births taking place between November 2020 and October 2022 correspond to conceptions occurring between February 2020 and January 2022, i.e., after the onset of the pandemic but prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The data cover 26 countries, including 21 countries in Europe, the United States, Canada, Israel, Japan and the Republic of Korea. METHODS: First, we provide a descriptive analysis of the monthly changes in the total fertility rate (TFR). Second, we estimate the effects of the explanatory factors on the observed fertility swings using linear fixed effects (within) regression models. MAIN RESULTS: We find that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation, the stringency of pandemic policy interventions, and the progression of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, whereas unemployment did not show any link to fertility during the pandemic. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our research is restricted to higher-income countries with relatively strong social support policies provided by the government as well as wide access to modern contraception. Our data do not allow analysing fertility trends by key characteristics, such as age, birth order and social status. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the first multi-country study of the drivers of birth trends in a later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, periods following epidemics and health crises were typically associated with a recovery in fertility. In contrast, our results show that the gradual phasing out of pandemic containment measures, allowing increased mobility and a return to more normal work and social life, contributed to declining birth rates in most countries. In addition, our analysis indicates that some women avoided pregnancy during the initial vaccination roll-out.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%