Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies

Abstract

Conventional theories have little to say about the level at which fertility will stabilize at the end of the demographic transition, although it is often assumed that replacement fertility of about 2.1 births per woman will prevail in the long run. However, fertility has dropped below the replacement level in virtually every population that has moved through the transition. If future fertility remains at these low levels, populations will decline in size and will age rapidly.This paper examines the causes of discrepancies between reproductive preferences and observed fertility. Examples of such deviations are found in many contemporary developed countries, where desired family size is typically two children while fertility is well below replacement. Six factors are identified as the causes of these discrepancies. Of these factors, the fertility-depressing impact of the rising age at childbearing is one of the most important. This factor reduces fertility only as long as the age at childbearing keeps rising. Once the mean age stops rising-as it eventually must-fertility will rise closer to the desired level of two children, because the depressing effect is then removed. The current low levels of fertility in many developed countries may therefore not be permanent.This material may not be reproduced in any form without written permission from the author.

Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data

“…Studies that seek to document trends in fertility desires across cohorts and regions have shown that the average number of children individuals want has fallen, consistent with the observed decline in actual fertility (Lutz 1996;Bongaarts 2001). 1 Recent findings from this line of research indicate that while the average number of children wanted has remained above two in most Western European countries, the personal ideal number of children is now below replacement in Germany and Austria (see Goldstein et al 2003Goldstein et al ).…”

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

“…Others draw the voluntary/involuntary distinction differently. To demographer Bongaarts (2001), for example, 'involuntary' childlessness has four sources: inability to find a suitable partner, union disruption, physiological sterility or disease-induced sterility. The position taken here is that demarcation between the childlessness of the infertile and of those biologically able to procreate is fundamental, and the focus is firmly on the latter.…”

An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain

“…The Spanish fertility rate dropped from 2.8 in 1975 to 1.15 in 1997, only to recover very lightly to 1.2 in recent years. Although desired fertility also went down in Spain and across Europe generally, it fell at a slower pace than fertility rates (Bongaarts, 2001;Goldstein, Lutz, & Testa, 2003). As a result, the gap between ideal and achieved fertility slowly increased in Spain in the last two decades.…”

“…But it has done so at a slower pace than fertility rates (Bongaarts, 2001). According to the 2001 Eurobarometer the ideal number of children is relatively homogenous for women 20-34 across the European Union, with an average just above replacement level of 2.1, but lower than for those 35-49 whose average stands at 2.3 (Goldstein et al, 2003).…”