Fentanyl related overdose in Indianapolis: Estimating trends using multilevel Bayesian models

Phalen, Peter; Ray, Bradley; Watson, Dennis P.; Huynh, Philip; Greene, Marion

doi:10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.03.010

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…We would need to calculate the moment and the probability of the turning point occurring when the trend changes. We referred to previous studies (Hèou et al, 2017; Peter et al, 2018; Zhao et al, 2019; John, Thomas & Christopher, 2015) to calculate the moment and probability of the turning point occurring (Fig. 4).…”

Section: Materials and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation dynamic analysis based on multisource remote sensing data in the east margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Wang

Peng

Xiangdong

et al. 2019

PeerJ

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This study focuses on the vegetation dynamic caused by global environmental change in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (EMQTP). The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is one of the most sensitive areas responding to global environmental change, particularly global climate change, and has been recognized as a hotspot for coupled studies on changes in global terrestrial ecosystems and global climates. An important component of terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation dynamic has become a key issue in global environmental change, and numerous case studies have been conducted on vegetation dynamic trends using multi-source data and multi-scale methods across different study periods. The EMQTP is regarded as a transitional area located between the QTP and the Sichuan basin, and has special geographical and climatic conditions. Although this area is ecologically fragile and sensitive to climate change, few studies about vegetation dynamics have been carried out in this area. Thus, in this study, we used long-term series datasets of GIMMS 3g NDVI and VGT/PROBA-V NDVI to analyze the vegetation dynamics and phenological changes from 1982 to 2018. Validation was performed based on Landsat NDVI and Vegetation Index & Phenology (VIP) data. The results reveal that the year 1998 was a vital turning point in the start of growing season (SGS) in vegetation ecosystems. Before this turning point, the SGS had an average slope of 9.2 days/decade, and after, the average slope was 3.9 days/decade. The length of growing season (LGS) was slightly prolonged between 1982 to 2015. Additionally, the largest national alpine wetland grassland experienced significant vegetation degradation; in autumn, the degraded area accounted for 63.4%. Vegetation degradation had also appeared in the arid valleys of the Yalong River and the Jinsha River. Through validation analysis, we found that the main causes of vegetation degradation are the natural degradation of wetland grassland and human activities, specifically agricultural development and residential area expansion.

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Section: Materials and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation dynamic analysis based on multisource remote sensing data in the east margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Wang

Peng

Xiangdong

et al. 2019

PeerJ

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“…Since then, the prevalence of opioid-related mortality has increased persistently, and the number of reported fentanyl-related deaths more than doubled (from 2628 to 5544) between 2012 and 2014 21,24,25 . The rate of fentanyl-related overdose deaths increased from <15% in 2010 to ~50% in 2017 in Marion County, Indiana 26 . Overall overdose deaths and first-responder calls increased in a community-based sample in an impoverished neighborhood in Vancouver, Canada, in 2017, and fentanyl was detected in 52% of the subjects who were prescribed opioid agonist therapy 27 .…”

Section: Epidemic and Evolution Of Illicit Fentanyl Usementioning

confidence: 99%

The rising crisis of illicit fentanyl use, overdose, and potential therapeutic strategies

et al. 2019

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Fentanyl is a powerful opioid anesthetic and analgesic, the use of which has caused an increasing public health threat in the United States and elsewhere. Fentanyl was initially approved and used for the treatment of moderate to severe pain, especially cancer pain. However, recent years have seen a growing concern that fentanyl and its analogs are widely synthesized in laboratories and adulterated with illicit supplies of heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine, and counterfeit pills, contributing to the exponential growth in the number of drug-related overdose deaths. This review summarizes the recent epidemic and evolution of illicit fentanyl use, its pharmacological mechanisms and side effects, and the potential clinical management and prevention of fentanyl-related overdoses. Because social, economic, and health problems that are related to the use of fentanyl and its analogs are growing, there is an urgent need to implement large-scale safe and effective harm reduction strategies to prevent fentanyl-related overdoses.

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“…The procedures for manual abstraction and coding of toxicology reports are detailed elsewhere. 12,15,16 Two researchers (P.H. and E.M.) coded data from death certificates and toxicology reports.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validating Imputation Procedures to Calculate Corrected Opioid-Involved Overdose Deaths, Marion County, Indiana, 2011-2016

Gupta

Cohen²,

Lowder

et al. 2019

Public Health Rep

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Objectives: Understanding the scope of the current opioid epidemic requires accurate counts of the number of opioid-involved drug overdose deaths. Given known errors and limitations in the reporting of these deaths, several studies have used statistical methods to develop estimates of the true number of opioid-involved overdose deaths. This study validates these procedures using a detailed county-level database of linked toxicology and vital records data. Methods: We extracted and linked toxicology and vital records data from Marion County, Indiana (Indianapolis), during a 6-year period (2011-2016). Using toxicology data as a criterion measure, we tested the validity of multiple imputation procedures, including the Ruhm regression-based imputation approach for correcting the number of opioid-involved overdose deaths. Results: Estimates deviated from true opioid-involved overdose deaths by 3% and increased in accuracy during the study period (2011-2016). For example, in 2016, 231 opioid-involved overdose deaths were noted in the toxicology data, whereas the corresponding imputed estimate was 233 opioid-involved overdose deaths. A simple imputation approach, based on the share of opioid-involved overdose deaths among all drug overdose deaths for which the death certificate specified ≥1 drug, deviated from true opioid-involved overdose deaths by ±5%. Conclusions: Commonly used imputation procedures produced estimates of the number of opioid-involved overdose deaths that are similar to the true number of opioid-involved overdose deaths obtained from toxicology data. Although future studies should examine whether these results extend beyond the geographic area covered in our data set, our findings support the continued use of these imputation procedures to quantify the extent of the opioid epidemic.

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Fentanyl related overdose in Indianapolis: Estimating trends using multilevel Bayesian models

Abstract: Fentanyl has increasingly been detected in fatal overdose deaths in Marion County. Policy and program responses must focus on education for those at highest risk of fentanyl exposure and death. These responses should also be tailored to meet the unique needs of high-risk demographics.

Cited by 37 publications

References 26 publications

Vegetation dynamic analysis based on multisource remote sensing data in the east margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Vegetation dynamic analysis based on multisource remote sensing data in the east margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The rising crisis of illicit fentanyl use, overdose, and potential therapeutic strategies

Validating Imputation Procedures to Calculate Corrected Opioid-Involved Overdose Deaths, Marion County, Indiana, 2011-2016

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