Feeding 11 billion on 0.5 billion hectare of area under cereal crops

Abstract

Despite impressive increase in global grain production since 1960s, there are 795 million food‐insecure and ~2 billion people prone to malnutrition. Further, global population of 7.4 billion in 2016 is projected to increase to 9.7 billion by 2050, with almost all increase occurring in developing countries. Thus, it is recommended that global food production be increased by 60 to 70% between 2005 and 2050. Global crop production increased threefold between 1965 and 2015 with a net increase of only 67 million ha (Mha) of cropland area. Nonetheless, agronomic yield of food staples can still be tripled or quadrupled in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), South Asia (SA), and the Caribbean by a widespread adoption of site‐specific best management practices of sustainable intensification (SI). Rather than expanding the area under cropland, agriculturally marginal and degraded soils can be set aside for nature conservancy. The global average cereal yield of 3.27 Mg ha−1 in 2005 can be increased to 5 Mg ha−1 by 2050, 6 Mg ha−1 by 2080 and 7 Mg ha−1 by 2100 through SI of agroecosystems in SSA, SA and elsewhere. The strategy of “producing more from less” necessitates restoration of soil health and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration to be more than 1.5–2.0% in the rootzone. The goal of SOC sequestration is in accord with the “4 per Thousand” initiative proposed at COP21 in 2015. Therefore, global food demands can be met despite the decreasing trends in the per capita cropland area by 2050 – 0.17 ha in the world and 0.15 ha in developing countries. While enhancing productivity by SI, the strategy is to simultaneously reduce food waste, increase access and distribution of food, and promote plant‐based diet. The goal is to reconcile high production with better environmental quality, develop urban agriculture (aquaponics, aeroponics, and vertical farms), promote nutrition‐sensitive farming, and restore degraded soils. Sustainable intensification of agroecosystems can produce enough food grains to feed one person for a year on 0.045 ha of arable land.

Eco-intensification through soil carbon sequestration: Harnessing ecosystem services and advancing sustainable development goals

“…The goal is to produce more per unit area of land, fertilizers and pesticides, irrigation, energy, and emission of greenhouse gases. With this strategy, the land area needed for cereal production can be decreased rather than increased (Lal 2016a).…”

“…However, such an indiscriminate intensification through plowing, flood-based irrigation, and high inputs of chemicals has strong adverse effects on the quality and functionality of soil, water, air, vegetation, and biodiversity (Benson 2014). Despite these massive inputs, agronomic production of food staples has stagnated in some regions (Grassini et al 2013), and new approaches to food production must be identified in the face of climate change (Beddington et al 2012;Foley et al 2011;Lal 2016aLal , 2018. Thus, the use of nutrients and pesticides, as well as rates and mode of application, in agroecosystems must be revisited (Drinkwater and Snapp 2007).…”

What agricultural practices are most likely to deliver “sustainable intensification” in the UK?

“…Both reviews highlight the prominence of a productivist lens, in other words, SI aims to increase agricultural production in order to feed a rapidly growing global population. This productivist lens, often described in combination with a desire to increase food security, is noticeable in scientific reports and journal articles, as well as in policy documents released in the last decade (Elliott & Firbank, ; Foresight ; Franks, ; Garnett et al., ; Lal, ; The Royal Society ; Tilman, Balzer, Hill, & Befort, ). Major policy initiatives, such as Defra's Sustainable Intensification Research Platform (http://www.siplatform.org.uk), and a wider Sustainable Intensification Research Network (https://sirn.org.uk) funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, have recently explored the potential for SI in the UK and elsewhere.…”

Deforestation and agriculture in the tropics: carbon emissions and options for mitigation

“…However in many cases, degraded land has marginal potential for production, even after costly rehabilitation. Lal (Lal 2016) suggested that agriculturally marginal and degraded soils should be avoided for this purpose (and could be set-aside for nature), and that lands with potential for higher yields could be restored, for example those in areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where there is potential for tripling or quadrupling of yields. Over 1.3 billion people however, use degraded agricultural land, particularly in the drylands (UNCCD 2017), and in general larger soil C sequestration rates can be achieved from interventions to increase C sequestration in degraded soils than from other soils (Minasny et al 2017).…”

“…There are a number of GHG mitigating practices which can be implemented to restore degraded and marginal land, such as the use of cover crops, avoiding overgrazing, using crop residues and organic composts and agroforestry, however employing these is not always straightforward (Paustian et al 2016). The conditions under which yields in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia could be increased while sparing land should be investigated, utilizing the existing body of evidence on successful CSA interventions (FAO 2013) (see for example also (Sa et al 2017;van Noordwijk et al 2016;Soliman et al 2016;Lal 2016)) . The dichotomy between forest and agriculture itself may prevent the emergence of optimal solutions, as for example in a landscape where fodder for dairy cows can be derived from any part of the landscape (Lusiana et al 2012).…”