Improvements in water
and sanitation should reduce cholera risk
though the associations between cholera and specific water and sanitation
access measures remain unclear. We estimated the association between
eight water and sanitation measures and annual cholera incidence access
across sub-Saharan Africa (2010–2016) for data aggregated at
the country and district levels. We fit random forest regression and
classification models to understand how well these measures combined
might be able to predict cholera incidence rates and identify high
cholera incidence areas. Across spatial scales, piped or “other
improved” water access was inversely associated with cholera
incidence. Access to piped water, septic or sewer sanitation, and
septic, sewer, or “other improved” sanitation were associated
with decreased district-level cholera incidence. The classification
model had moderate performance in identifying high cholera incidence
areas (cross-validated-AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.78–0.83) with high
negative predictive values (93–100%) indicating the utility
of water and sanitation measures for screening out areas that are
unlikely to be at high cholera risk. While comprehensive cholera risk
assessments must incorporate other data sources (e.g., historical
incidence), our results suggest that water and sanitation measures
could alone be useful in narrowing the geographic focus for detailed
risk assessments.