Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Abstract

The rapid expansion of the built environment has resulted in the coexistence of industrial facilities and urban centres. Following recent major earthquakes throughout the world, it has become clear that multi-hazard domino effects can significantly increase the risk of fatalities, environmental problems and losses. This complex phenomenon is not yet well understood. In this paper, the problem is treated by decomposing it into several subproblems which are described by simplified probabilistic models. These models are then coupled with the Monte Carlo method to estimate the annual probability of fatality for an individual who is continuously standing in a location of interest and to estimate fatality risk maps for an area of interest. Emphasis is placed on considering multi-hazard domino effects, which can be triggered within an industrial area due to the damage caused by earthquakes. Thus it is considered that fatalities can be caused: a) as a direct consequence of seismic damage to a unit b) as a direct physical and/or chemical consequence due to the loss of containment of hazardous material, and c) as a consequence of domino triggered by physical and chemical events such as fire, explosion, and toxic dispersion. The capabilities of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by calculating fatality risk maps for a hypothetical industrialized urban area. It is shown that disregarding multi-hazard domino effects in the estimation of fatality risk could lead to significant underestimation of the fatality risk in an industrialized urban area. Thus, it is necessary to account for multi-hazard domino effects. However, different teams of engineers can enhance the models for the probability of fatality due to various phenomena, which will improve the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

“…While the damage caused by an impact-induced earthquake may be largely restricted to the areas more greatly damaged by the later arriving blast wave, its effects should not be underestimated as the earthquake damage could set the stage for a cascade of additional natural disasters that could cause havoc on decadal timescales as shown by the 1999 Jiji, Taiwan and 2008 Wenchuan, China earthquakes (Fan et al 2018 ) and the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake (Massey et al 2018 ). Particularly in urban areas, collapse of power lines and breaking of power cables can start fires, which can result in toxic emissions from chemical fires (Moussa and Devarakonda 2014 ; Celano and Dolšek 2021 ). Even outside of urban areas, the M6.7 1927 “Crimean” (Krym) earthquake released methane, hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S), and phosphine from the seabed of the “Black Sea” (Prychornomors’ka Nyzovyna) which spontaneously ignited, resulting in many fires as well as the release of toxic gases (Schuiling et al 2007 ).…”

Risk‐targeted fragility functions considering a system performance requirement and domino effects

“…The complex part of the equation is to estimate the annual rate of fatality in a cth cell, λ c . According to the previous study, 26 λ c is derived as follows:…”

“…A computer code was developed to calculate this combined fatality probability for a large number of units, as explained elsewhere in more detail. 26 Because it is not trivial to model the probability of fatality for any given unit damage due to an earthquake intensity of IM = im, 𝑃[𝐹 𝑐 |𝐷(𝑈 𝑖 ), 𝐼𝑀 = 𝑖𝑚], discrete damage states were introduced, and the probability of fatality in a given location was decomposed into (i) the probability of fatality given the dth discrete damage state, and (ii) the probability of the damage state given the ground motion intensity measure. Equation (4) then becomes:…”

The risk‐targeted verification model of earthquake‐induced sliding displacement of low‐rise thermally base‐insulated buildings

“…Sliding displacements are usually not critical in terms of causing building collapse; however, they may cause damage to gas, electricity or water lifelines, which can trigger further domino effects such as fires or explosions, with the potential for loss of life (e.g. Celano and Dolšek, 10 Reniers and Cozzani, 11 Salzano and Cozzani 12 ).…”

“…Sliding displacements are usually not critical in terms of causing building collapse; however, they may cause damage to gas, electricity or water lifelines, which can trigger further domino effects such as fires or explosions, with the potential for loss of life (e.g. Celano and Dolšek, 10 Reniers and Cozzani, 11 Salzano and Cozzani 12 ). One possibility to protect against excessive sliding and rocking is the installation of vertical and horizontal restraining elements that constrain sliding or rocking of the building to some limited value.…”