Fast economic indicators

Haldane, Andrew; Chowla, Shiv

doi:10.1038/s42254-020-0236-y

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Yet, while we were well aware of the Great Recession in the wake of the 2007 US financial crises and devoted considerable effort to make the Barometers robust against such events, we still relied on established economic reasoning. In particular, the data generating processes underlying the Barometers are the respondents' replies to economic surveys, which link past experience to the current set of Haldane and Chowla (2021). 35 The results of these tests are available upon request.…”

Section: The Global Barometers During the Covid-19 Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers

et al. 2022

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This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle—the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate and consist of economic tendency surveys results from many countries around the world. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection procedure, in which a pre-set correlation threshold and the targeted leads to the reference series are used as selection criteria. In the second stage, the selected variables are combined and transformed into the respective composite indicators, computed as the first partial least squares factor with the reference series as response variable. We analyse the characteristics of the two new indicators in a pseudo real-time setting and demonstrate that both are useful additions to the small number of indicators for the global business cycle published so far. Finally, yet importantly, the Barometers were quick to plunge in the beginning of March 2020 and have since then given a reliable real-time reflection of the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Section: The Global Barometers During the Covid-19 Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Our prior is that mobility is positively correlated with business transactions (e.g., shopping, work commuting) and hence with overall economic activity. These mobility indicators have been widely used to nowcast GDP and economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many studies showing their importance to tracking activity in real time during the pandemic (Sampi and Jooste, 2021;Haldane and Chowla, 2021;Gamtkitsulashvili and Plekhanov, 2021;Woloszko, 2020).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%