Fast, Direct Sensitivity Analysis of Multidimensional Photochemical Models

Yang, Yan‐Dong; Wilkinson, James G.; Russell, Armistead G.

doi:10.1021/es970117w

Cited by 170 publications

(157 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…A reduced-form model of the CMAQ is established using the sensitivities calculated by the embedded direct sensitivity technique, the CMAQ DDM-3D (10,11,15,22). Sensitivities quantify the pollutant-emission response,…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations

Kerl

Zhang

Moreno‐Cruz

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Integrating accurate air quality modeling with decision making is hampered by complex atmospheric physics and chemistry and its coupling with atmospheric transport. Existing approaches to model the physics and chemistry accurately lead to significant computational burdens in computing the response of atmospheric concentrations to changes in emissions profiles. By integrating a reduced form of a fully coupled atmospheric model within a unit commitment optimization model, we allow, for the first time to our knowledge, a fully dynamical approach toward electricity planning that accurately and rapidly minimizes both cost and health impacts. The reduced-form model captures the response of spatially resolved air pollutant concentrations to changes in electricity-generating plant emissions on an hourly basis with accuracy comparable to a comprehensive air quality model. The integrated model allows for the inclusion of human health impacts into cost-based decisions for power plant operation. We use the new capability in a case study of the state of Georgia over the years of 2004-2011, and show that a shift in utilization among existing power plants during selected hourly periods could have provided a health cost savings of $175.9 million dollars for an additional electricity generation cost of $83.6 million in 2007 US dollars (USD 2007 ). The case study illustrates how air pollutant health impacts can be cost-effectively minimized by intelligently modulating power plant operations over multihour periods, without implementing additional emissions control technologies.air pollution | electricity generation | health impacts | externalities | energy policy I n 2013, coal was used to produce 39% of the electricity in the United States (1), the largest portion of generation from any fuel type. During combustion, electricity generation from fossil fuels, such as coal, produces large quantities of primary gaseous pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO X ), which are major contributors to air pollution. These gaseous emissions interact with the atmosphere downwind of source emissions, forming several secondary air pollutants, including sulfate-based fine particulates less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ). Sulfate-based PM 2.5 comprises an estimated average of 24% of the ambient PM 2.5 in the United States (2), and can be controlled, in part, by a reduction in SO 2 emissions. Increased PM 2.5 concentrations cause increased mortality and asthma rates, as well as nonfatal heart attacks, emergency room visits, and hospital visits (3).Previous studies have integrated air pollution impacts into energy system models, but these studies lacked heterogeneous hourly and seasonal temporal pollutant formation. Muller et al. (9) to assess the health impacts of major emissions sectors in the United States. These studies have all made important contributions to the quantitative understanding of the health impacts of air pollution from electricity, transportation, and industrial systems...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations

Kerl

Zhang

Moreno‐Cruz

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

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“…One way that this problem has been addressed is by using comprehensive three-dimensional chemistry-transport air quality models (CTMs). These types of models have been successfully used to simulate the dynamics of air pollutants at urban and regional scales, as well as to obtain their sensitivity to changes in emission strengths (Yang et al, 1997;Cohan et al, 2005). Thus, three-dimensional (3-D) CTMs have emerged as an indispensable tool for large-scale emission control strategy evaluation and air quality public policy analysis (e.g., Russell et al, 1995;Hakami et al, 2006;Liao et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Sierra

Vanoye

Mendoza

2013

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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A summer episode was modeled to address the expected response of ambient air O 3 to hypothetical emission control scenarios in northeastern Mexico, and in particular in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA). This region is of interest because the MMA holds one of the worst air quality problems in the country and levels of air pollutants in the rest of northeastern Mexico are starting to be a concern. The MM5-SMOKE-CMAQ platform was used to conduct the numerical experiments. Twenty-four control scenarios were evaluated, combining the level of emission controls of O 3 precursors (NOx and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) from 0% to 50%. For the MMA, VOC-only controls result in the best option to reduce O 3 concentrations, though the benefit is limited to the urban core. This same strategy results in negligible benefits for the rest of northeastern Mexico. NOx controls result in an increase in O 3 concentration within the MMA of up to 20 ppbv and a decrease at downwind locations of up to 11 ppbv, with respect to the basecase scenario. Indicator ratios were also used to probe for NOx-sensitive and VOC-sensitive areas. Locations with an important influence of NOx point sources (i.e., Monclova and Nava/Acuña) are quite sensitive to changes in NOx emissions. Border cities in the Rio Bravo/Grande Valley tend to be marginally NOx-sensitive. Overall, the MMA seems to be dominated by a VOC-sensitive regime, while the rest of the region would tend to have a NOx-sensitive response. The results obtained serve to expand the current knowledge on the chemical regimes that dominate this region (VOC-or NOx-sensitive), and thus could help guide public policies related to emission regional control strategies.Implications: Updated information on the expected response of ambient air O 3 to emission changes in northeastern Mexico is presented. Results suggest that emission control strategies for the Monterrey Metropolitan Area should focus on VOC reductions or combined VOC-NOx reductions, while the Lower Rio Bravo/Grande Valley border has a negligible response to the emission scenarios tested. Changes in NOx emissions from Carbon II, a 1,400-MW coal-fired electric utility, would have a nonnegligible transboundary effect.

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“…The ability to conduct sensitivity analyses in an efficient fashion is critical to obtain robust descriptions of the response fields of pollutant concentrations to changes in model inputs (particularly emissions), which then are used in source attribution analyses and control strategy design (e.g., Bergin et al, 2007). Among the different choices to estimate the sensitivity fields, the direct decoupled method for three-dimensional models (DDM-3D) has proven to be superior to other techniques (Yang et al, 1997;Hakami et al, 2003). DDM-3D is an implementation of the Decoupled, Direct Method (Dunker, 1984;Dunker et al, 2002) for sensitivity analysis.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Dynamics of Air Pollutants: Trans-Boundary Impacts in the Mexicali-Imperial Valley Border Region

Mendoza¹,

Chandru²,

Hu³

et al. 2011

Advanced Air Pollution

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Fast, Direct Sensitivity Analysis of Multidimensional Photochemical Models

Cited by 170 publications

References 19 publications

New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations

New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations

Ozone sensitivity to its precursor emissions in northeastern Mexico for a summer air pollution episode

Modeling the Dynamics of Air Pollutants: Trans-Boundary Impacts in the Mexicali-Imperial Valley Border Region

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