When the hot oil
pipeline is running at a low throughput, it easily
enters into an unstable condition, which seriously threatens the safety
of the hot oil pipeline operation. In this study, the unsteady heat
transfer and flow mathematical models for the hot oil pipeline system
were established first by comprehensively considering the uncertainty
of parameters during pipeline operation, such as the operating parameters
(throughput and oil temperature), physical properties of crude oil
(freezing point, viscosity, and thixotropic parameters), and environmental
parameters (buried deep soil temperature and soil thermal conductivity).
Then, the efficient Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) stochastic numerical
algorithm was applied and further developed to quantitatively describe
the operation safety of hot oil pipelines with low throughput in the
form of probability. On the basis of the abovementioned research,
the qualitative relationship between pipeline flowrate and friction
loss is obtained. Finally, taking an actual crude oil pipeline as
an example, the failure probabilities of the pipeline under different
operating conditions were analyzed in detail. Combined with the target
safety level of pipeline operation, the minimum allowable throughput
of pipelines was determined. This study revealed the flow and heat
transfer law of hot oil pipelines with low throughput and determined
its operation safety and reliability under different operating conditions.