Far future climate (2060–2100) of the northern Adriatic air–sea heat transfers associated with extreme bora events

Denamiel, Cléa; Tojčić, Iva; Vilibić, Ivica

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05435-8

Cited by 21 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…First, dense water is formed within the Kvarner Bay (Vilibić et al, 2018). Second, due to the ocean circulation, the correlations between bora-driven heat fluxes and sea surface cooling are generally weak in the northern Adriatic during extreme bora storms (Denamiel et al, 2020b). They are even totally insignificant around the Cres island due to the transport of waters from the Kvarner Bay to the northern Adriatic shelf.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Balancing Accuracy and Efficiency of Atmospheric Models in the Northern Adriatic During Severe Bora Events

2021

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In process‐oriented studies, accurate representation of severe bora rotor dynamics in the northern Adriatic is known to require the use of model resolutions of the order of 100 m. In regional climate studies, computation time and numerical cost are, however, minimized with resolutions of the order of 10 km. The latter is not accurate enough to drive the coastal dense water formation and the long‐term Adriatic‐Ionian thermohaline circulation resulting from these events. This work leverages the capacity of kilometer‐scale atmospheric models to balance accuracy and efficiency in coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate studies in the Adriatic Sea. The sensitivity of severe bora dynamics and air‐sea interactions to atmospheric model resolution is thus tested within the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modeling suite as well as with the best available reanalysis. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 15‐km, 3‐km, and 1.5‐km resolution, and ERA5 at 30‐km resolution, are compared for an ensemble of 22 severe bora storms spanning between 1991 and 2019. It is found that (1) ERA5 reanalysis and WRF 15‐km model highly diverge (up to 43% for the wind speed) from WRF 3‐km results while (2) WRF 3‐km conditions converge toward the WRF 1.5‐km solution for both basic bora dynamics (differences below 6% for the wind speed) and air‐sea interactions (differences 5 times smaller than with WRF 15‐km results). Consequently, kilometer‐scale atmospheric models should be used to reproduce properly the dense water formation during severe bora events and the long‐term thermohaline circulation of the Adriatic‐Ionian basin.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Balancing Accuracy and Efficiency of Atmospheric Models in the Northern Adriatic During Severe Bora Events

2021

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“…The evaluation run covering the 1987-2017 period is partially presented in this study. The far-future runs (2070-2100 period) are derived with the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) methodology recently extended to coupled atmosphere-ocean models (Denamiel et al, 2020a) and tested for an ensemble of short-term extreme events in the Adriatic Sea (Denamiel et al, 2020a(Denamiel et al, , 2020b. In this climate configuration (Table 1) Mediterranean basin.…”

Section: Adrisc Climate Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These events are indeed associated with strong sea surface cooling known to precondition the dense water formation and the thermohaline circulation of the Adriatic Sea (e.g. Artegiani et al, 1997;Orlić et al, 2007;Janeković et al, 2014;Vilibić et al, 2018;Denamiel et al, 2020b). It is thus expected that the detailed analysis of the 31-year long AdriSC climate evaluation run will provide, in a near future, more robust and more reliable results concerning the drivers of the BiOS, but also better representation of the orographically-driven wind storms and their impact on the ocean processes such as the Adriatic thermohaline circulation.…”

Section: Summary and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, for climate projections, the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method (Schär et al, 1996) was proven to greatly improve the future projections of precipitations and convective storms in atmospheric kilometre-scale climate models (Prein et al, 2015). Consequently, this method was first extended to coupled atmosphere-ocean models, then implemented in the AdriSC climate component, and finally tested successfully with an ensemble of short-term climate simulations for wind-driven extreme events in the Adriatic Sea (Denamiel et al, 2020a(Denamiel et al, , 2020b). The need to use kilometre-scale models during severe bora events for proper representation of the Adriatic long-term thermohaline circulation was also demonstrated (Denamiel et al, 2021).…”

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Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling suite: atmospheric part

Denamiel¹,

Pranić²,

Ivanković³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. In this evaluation study, the coupled atmosphere-ocean Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model, which was implemented to carry out 31-year long evaluation and climate projection simulations in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas, is briefly presented. The kilometre-scale AdriSC atmospheric results, derived with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3-km model for the 1987–2017 period, are then thoroughly compared to a comprehensive publicly and freely available observational dataset. The evaluation shows that overall, except for the summer surface temperatures which are systematically underestimated, the AdriSC WRF 3-km model has a far better capacity to reproduce the surface climate variables (and particularly the rain) than the WRF regional climate models at 0.11° of resolution. In addition, several spurious data have been found in both gridded products and in situ measurements which thus should be used with care in the Adriatic region for climate studies at local and regional scales. Long-term simulations with the AdriSC climate model, which couples the WRF 3-km model with a 1-km ocean model, might thus be a new avenue to substantially improve the reproduction, at the climate scale, of the Adriatic Sea dynamics driving the Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. As such it may also provide new standards for climate studies of orographically-developed coastal regions in general.

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“…Therefore, to quantify the impacts of climate change in the Adriatic, it is crucial to obtain an adequate representation at climate scales of the atmosphere-ocean interactions during extreme events which are, for example, driving the formation of dense water within the basin. Atmospheric RCMs generally fail to provide such a representation, especially in the northern Adriatic where they cannot be used to study the extreme bora dynamics (Denamiel et al, 2020b(Denamiel et al, , 2021a. Additionally, it has also been recently demonstrated that the latest higher resolution ECMWF reanalysis datasetthe ERA5 product (Hersbach et al, 2018), cannot be used either as a reference for climate model evaluation nor as a forcing for ocean models during bora events in the northern Adriatic as it also strongly underestimates the extreme bora speeds (Denamiel et al, 2021a).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling suite: ocean part

Pranić¹,

Denamiel²,

Vilibić³

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. In this study, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean climate model covering the Adriatic and northern Ionian Seas is presented. The AdriSC ocean results of a 31-year long (i.e. 1987–2017) climate simulation, derived with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-km and 1-km models, are evaluated with respect to a comprehensive collection of remote-sensing and in situ observational data. In general, it is found that the AdriSC model is capable to reproduce the observed sea-surface properties, daily temperatures and salinities and the hourly ocean currents with good accuracy. In particular, the AdriSC ROMS 3-km model demonstrates skill in reproducing the main variabilities of the sea-surface height as well as the sea-surface temperature, despite a persistent negative bias within the Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, the AdriSC ROMS 1-km model is found to be more capable to reproduce the observed thermohaline and dynamical properties than the AdriSC ROMS 3-km model. For the temperature and salinity, better results are obtained in the deeper parts than in the shallow shelf and coastal parts, particularly for the surface layer of the Adriatic Sea. The AdriSC ROMS 1-km model is also found to perform well in reproducing the seasonal thermohaline properties of the water masses over the entire Adriatic-Ionian domain. The evaluation of the modelled ocean currents revealed better results at locations along the eastern coast and especially the north-eastern shelf than in the middle-eastern coastal area and the deepest part of the Adriatic Sea. Finally, the AdriSC climate component is found to be a more suitable modelling framework to study the dense water formation and long-term thermohaline circulation of the Adriatic-Ionian basin than the available Mediterranean regional climate models.

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Far future climate (2060–2100) of the northern Adriatic air–sea heat transfers associated with extreme bora events

Cited by 21 publications

References 68 publications

Balancing Accuracy and Efficiency of Atmospheric Models in the Northern Adriatic During Severe Bora Events

Balancing Accuracy and Efficiency of Atmospheric Models in the Northern Adriatic During Severe Bora Events

Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling suite: atmospheric part

Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling suite: ocean part

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