Fan Substitution and the 2004-05 NHL Lockout

Abstract

This study estimates fan substitution in sports using the 2004-05 National Hockey League (NHL) season-long lockout as a natural experiment. The authors find that NHL fans substitute minor league and junior league hockey for the NHL. Because this is not due to a change in the price of a substitute good, the findings point to pure substitution effects without income effects. The findings have implications for future work on fan demand, especially for those studying habit and loyalty, or sports policy. I n this study, we investigate the behavior of National Hockey League (NHL) fans during the 2004-05 season-long lockout. This leads to insights concerning the demand for sports as we estimate the impact of the lockout on the attendance demand functions of minor and junior hockey league teams. We find that minor and junior league hockey teams had an increase in demand during the 2004-05 season. Because this observed switching did not happen because of a change in the price of a substitute good, these are pure substitution effects without income effects.A further interesting result is that this substitution took decidedly different forms in each of the two types of leagues. Attendance at minor league teams increased during the lockout with no statistically significant difference attributable to the presence of an NHL team in the same standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA). However, for junior league teams, there was an increase in attendance only in cities where there was an NHL team in the same SMSA. Only 25% of minor league teams with an NHL franchise in the same SMSA in 2004-05 were in Canada, whereas 80% for junior league teams with an NHL franchise in the same SMSA were in Canada. Because our data do not allow us to determine the marginal contribution of fan nationality, we are only able to say the following: If both U.S. and Canadian NHL fans are otherwise alike, the minor league alternative is a closer substitute than the junior league alternative for fans without an NHL team in their SMSA. Because it seems that fans without an NHL team in their SMSA would be mainly NHL television fans, this also suggests that having live alternatives really only matters if it is a minor league team rather than a junior league team.Our work has implications for those studying sports fan demand, how substitution effects are best captured, the role of loyalty and habit in sports demand, and

Sports Fans, Identity, and Socialization: Exploring the Fandemonium

“…While the positive effect of team quality and age are well-established and straightforward in their interpretation, others demand more consideration. The notion of sporting contests as substitutes or complements for one another is an important topic among sport management researchers (e.g., Allan & Roy, 2008;Baimbridge, Cameron, & Dawson, 1996;Garcia & Rodriguez, 2002;Siegfried & Hinshaw, 1979;Winfree & Fort, 2008;Winfree, McCluskey, Mittelhammer, & Fort, 2004), often by way of broadcast as a potential substitute or complement for live spectatorship. Although our data did not support a substitution effect related to an active local team in the MLB playoffs, the broadcast of another NFL game was indeed a viable substitute for an out-of-market game.…”

“…Although flow theory typically relates only to adjacent programming on the same network, in the case of NFL programming it is worthwhile to investigate whether a cross-channel effect exists as the foundational tenets of flow theory, namely audience availability and viewer program preference, are applicable regardless of channel. Given the habitual nature of sports viewership well-documented in the sport management literature (e.g., Borland & Lye, 1992;Owen & Weatherspoon, 2004;Spenner, Fenn, & Crooker, 2010;Winfree & Fort, 2008;Won & Lee, 2008) coupled with the fact that Sunday afternoon games always appear on one of two networks, we assume fans have some awareness of the channels on which games may appear.…”

Is the Grass Greener? Switching Costs and Geographic Proximity in the High Status Affiliations of Professional Baseball

“…To that extent, a substitute for a minor league game could include any other local entertainment establishment such as movie theaters, public swimming pools, or the local bowling alley. Moreover, there is a mounting evidence that sports fans who attend minor league games also substitute major league games and vice versa (Winfree and Fort, ). When looking specifically at ticket price, Gitter and Rhoads () show that a minor league team will experience an increase in attendance if an MLB team within 100 mi increases its ticket price.…”

Predicting National Basketball Association Game Attendance Using Random Forests

“…Leadley and Zygmont, 2006;and Winfree and Fort, 2008, report on factors impacting hockey. In their study, Paul and Weinbach (2011) found that "Fan demand for Canadian Hockey junior league level of hockey is found to be sensitive to the success of the home team and to exhibit normal consumer responses to weekday and monthly effects with weekends being more popular and attendance increasing throughout the season toward the playoffs.…”