Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries

Abstract

Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Working Equid Community: Responses from 1530 Individuals Accessing NGO Support in 14 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

“…It is clear from the results that the pandemic has had substantial effects on income within the working equid community ( Table 2 ). Decreases in income for those living in LMICs attributed to the pandemic have been reported in other studies [ 37 , 38 ]. For example, Egger et al (2021) reported that, across nine developing countries, a median of 68% respondents had experienced a reduction in income [ 37 ].…”

“…Decreases in income for those living in LMICs attributed to the pandemic have been reported in other studies [ 37 , 38 ]. For example, Egger et al (2021) reported that, across nine developing countries, a median of 68% respondents had experienced a reduction in income [ 37 ]. The World Bank has made grim predictions: “In the two decades since 1999, the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide has fallen by more than one billion people.…”

“…The crisis faced by LMICs as a result of COVID-19 differs from that faced by high-income countries [ 37 , 47 ]. For example, in lower-income countries, people have fewer household savings or governmental safety nets including compensation or income support to mitigate economic losses [ 39 ].…”

Protective Behaviors and Secondary Harms Resulting From Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa: Multisite, Prospective Longitudinal Study

“…We gratefully acknowledge the enormous efforts of all the call center agents at the three study sites who worked intensively throughout the COVID-19 epidemic and the participants who responded multiple times despite the difficult social and economic conditions. Core surveillance activities, including the telephonic surveillance of COVID- 19…”

“…Robust data are essential for evaluating the hypotheses that lockdowns cause substantial harm or are futile and for targeting locations that are the most in need of resources. The impact of NPIs has been evaluated in various low-and middle-income countries, generating evidence of early reductions in income and food security and the rapid, substantial uptake of protective behaviors [18][19][20][21][22].…”