Factors responsible for the 2015 Cholera outbreak and spread in Ebonyi state, Nigeria

Onwe, FI; Agu, AP; Umezuruike, Daniel; Ogbonna, C

doi:10.46912/jeson.23

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 3 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Cholera outbreaks have been seen in both the rainy and the dry season and the work presented here shows potential triggers for when extra vigilance is needed, especially in certain states. This immediate insight is important, while continually working to offset cholera risks from extremes through sanitation and hygiene, which can take significant time and resources 44 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Charnley

Yennan

Ochu

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cholera is reported as endemic in more than 50 countries, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cases, with several risk factors potentially contributing to this including poverty, water, sanitation and climate. Enteric pathogens have a significant global burden, especially on children and those most vulnerable. Despite this, attention is often drawn away from these diseases, most recently to Ebola and COVID-19. To address the need for more research and focus on cholera, a covariate selection process and machine learning was used. Data for environmental (floods, droughts) and social (conflicts) extremes, along with pre-existing social vulnerabilities, were fit to time varying reproductive number in Nigeria. We analysed this both spatially and temporally and used it to create a traffic-light system for cholera transmission, highlighting potential thresholds and triggers for outbreak. Improved access to sanitation, number of monthly conflict events, Multidimensional Poverty Index and Palmers Drought Severity Index were retained in the best fit model. Varying exposure periods showed that those living in decreased poverty, with more access to sanitation were not as vulnerable to changes and offset some of the cholera risk caused by extremes. The work presented here shows the need to address these pre-existing vulnerabilities and sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and improve health and quality of life.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Charnley

Yennan

Ochu

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The insight presented shows that some states are impacted by either a relatively wetter or drier environment and suggests that in some states extra vigilance is needed. Continued work is essential to offset cholera risks related to droughts or floods through sanitation and hygiene, which can take significant time and resources [66].…”

Section: Plos Global Public Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Charnley

Yennan

Ochu

et al. 2022

PLOS Glob Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

show abstract

Factors responsible for the 2015 Cholera outbreak and spread in Ebonyi state, Nigeria

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About