Factors of sustainable development of electronic commerce in Russian retail

Abstract

Digitalization affects many industries, including the service sector. In this area, under the influence of the “digitalization” of the economy, there is a tendency to transfer consumer demand to the Internet. The processes of digitalization of retail trade began several years ago, but during the coronavirus pandemic, they accelerated several times, as evidenced by the growth of turnover of Internet companies. The aim of the study is to predict the share of e-commerce in the structure of retail trade. Research methods: description, comparison, analogy, generalization and analysis. In the course of the study, the dynamics of retail trade, including Internet trade, was analysed, the impact of the pandemic on retail trade was analysed, and factors affecting structural changes in retail trade were identified. On the basis of linear regression, a model of the influence of the growth rate of e-commerce volumes on the growth rate of offline turnover is constructed. The forecast showed an increase in e-trade turnover, therefore, an increase in its share in the overall structure of retail trade. The pandemic accelerated the increase in the share of Internet trade in 2020 and adjusted forecasts for the following periods. The significant growth of ecommerce caused by the pandemic will slow down in the coming years, but the trend of buyer and seller switching to the Internet will continue, which will lead to structural changes in retail.