Factors Influencing Water Resources Levels under the Water Resources Carrying Capacity Framework – A Dynamic QCA Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

Abstract

Current frameworks for evaluating water resources carrying capacity often overlook the interdependencies between subsystems, hindering the exploration of the differentiated pathways through which each subsystem impacts the water resource subsystem. Therefore, the aim of this study is to introduce the dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) model into the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity. The ecological environment, social, and economic subsystems are defined as conditional subsystems, while the water resources subsystem is defined as the outcome subsystem. The Entropy Weight Method is used to calculate the comprehensive scores of each subsystem and to calibrate them. Leveraging the "analysis of the necessity of a single conditional subsystem" and the "analysis of the sufficiency of the configuration of conditional subsystems" from dynamic QCA, we qualitatively analyze the extent and pathways of the impact of the ecological environment, social, and economic subsystems on the water resources subsystem within the framework of water resources carrying capacity. Results reveal a general stability in water resource levels despite regional variances, pinpointing pathways of influence including ecological-social and ecological-economic configurations. The period of 2011–2015 saw poor stability which then improved until 2019, followed by a decline in 2020. The middle reaches urban cluster showed the highest stability, less impacted by conditional subsystems. The findings enable provinces and municipalities to tailor policies and enhance subsystem levels for better water resource management.