Factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the UK

McLaws, Melissa; Ribble, Carl; Martin, William F.; Stephen, Craig

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2006.06.003

Cited by 26 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Vosloo et al (2002) and Sangare et al (2004) proved that intensive livestock production is highly vulnerable to the effect of FMD. The signs and lesions observed in sick animals were comparable with those reported elsewhere in literature (Radostits et al 2007;Quinn et al 2005;McLaws et al 2006). Age-specific seropositivitity study revealed that seropositivity increases with age.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Outbreak investigations and genetic characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Ethiopia in 2008/2009

Negusssie

Kyule

Yami

et al. 2010

Trop Anim Health Prod

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The study was conducted in three regional states of Ethiopia: Amhara, Oromia, and Addis Ababa from August 2008 to April 2009 with the objectives of identifying the genetic diversity of serotypes and topotypes in Ethiopia, and determining the attack rate and associations of potential risk factors with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) seropositivity. A total of 496 cattle were clinically and serologically examined for presence of specific lesions and nonstructural protein for FMD, respectively. Of which, 140 (28.2%) manifested clinical signs and lesions suggestive of FMD, and 219 (44.2%) were seropositive. From a total of 7,781 animals observed and recorded on a designed format in six districts, 1,409 (19.6%) were infected, and 15 (0.12%) died during outbreaks of FMD. Epidemiological investigations revealed that the morbidity rate of the disease was 21.1% in Akaki-kality sub-city, but the mortality rate was <2% in all districts. Furthermore, the mortality and case fatality rates were relatively higher, 1.6% and 8.9% in calves than the other age groups, respectively. From a total of 33 bovine epithelial tissue-cultured samples, 19 (57.6%) showed CPE for FMD virus, in which 16 samples had serotype O and EA-3 topotype, while three samples had found serotype A, Africa topotype, and G-VII strain. Various strains of FMD viruses were isolated in Ethiopia in this study, and therefore, further detailed studies on the evaluation of available vaccines and the development of a vaccine which contains cocktails of antigens of FMD virus strains in the country should be encouraged.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Outbreak investigations and genetic characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Ethiopia in 2008/2009

Negusssie

Kyule

Yami

et al. 2010

Trop Anim Health Prod

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“…We chose to create a series of monthly networks because this allowed us to represent the longest plausible period from introduction to first detection of a highly contagious disease. The age of oldest FMD lesions observed in the UK 2001 outbreak was 14 days old (Mclaws et al., 2005) and we added another 14 days to account for an incubation period of 2–14 days (Garland and Donaldson, 1990). Beyond this timeframe, it is unlikely that an epidemic would persist without being identified (Kiss et al., 2006), so considering movement networks of longer duration would artificially increase resulting maximal epidemic size estimates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Network Analysis Measures to Determine Potential Epidemic Size of Highly Contagious Exotic Diseases in Fragmented Monthly Networks of Dairy Cattle Movements in Ontario, Canada

Dubé

Ribble

Kelton

et al. 2008

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

100

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Adult milking cow movements occurring in monthly periods in 2004-2006 were analysed to compare three network analysis measures to determine the lower and upper bounds of potential maximal epidemic size in an unrestrained epidemic: the out-degree, the infection chain or output domain of a farm, and the size of the strong and weak components. The directed networks generated by the movements of adult milking cows were highly fragmented. When all the farms that were not involved in shipments were included in the analysis, the risk of infection transmission through movements of adult cows was very low. To determine the size of an epidemic when an infected farm shipped cows in such a fragmented network, farm out-degree and infection chain provided similar and more reasonable estimates of potential maximal epidemic size than the size of the strong and weak components. Component analysis always provided estimates that were two to three times larger than the out-degree of infection chain approaches. For example, the upper bound was estimated to be 12-13 farms using out-degree and 16-17 farms using the infection chain, the components approach showed a range of 39-51 potentially exposed farms. Strong components provided an inflated measure of the lower bound of potential maximal epidemic size at first diagnosis because the time sequence of shipments was not considered. Weak components provided an inflated measure of the upper bound because both the time sequence and directionality of shipments between farms were ignored. Farm degree and infection chain measures should now be tested to determine their usefulness for estimating maximum epidemic size in large connected networks.

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“…Therefore, a conservative estimate based on data from the UK 2001 epidemic was used, i.e., five SI per detected herd was assumed for the numbers of inspections based on passive surveillance (23). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

et al. 2017

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Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of Euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important for the Danish husbandry industry, especially the swine industry, which had an export of €4.4 billion in 2012. The purposes of this project were to (1) develop an iterative tool with the aim of estimating the resources needed during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Denmark, (2) identify areas, which can delay the control of the disease. The tool developed should easily be updated, when knowledge is gained from other veterinary crises or during an outbreak of FMD. The stochastic simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate spread of FMD in Denmark. For each task occurring during an epidemic of FMD, the time and personnel needed per herd was estimated by a working group with expertise in contingency and crisis management. By combining this information, an iterative model was created to calculate the needed personnel on a daily basis during the epidemic. The needed personnel was predicted to peak within the first week with a requirement of approximately 123 (65–175) veterinarians, 33 (23–64) technicians, and 36 (26–49) administrative staff on day 2, while the personnel needed in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection of the farm) was predicted to be 174 (58–464), mostly recruits. The time needed for surveillance visits was predicted to be the most influential factor in the calculations. Based on results from a stochastic simulation model, it was possible to create an iterative model to estimate the requirements for personnel during an FMD outbreak in Denmark. The model can easily be adjusted, when new information on resources appears from management of other crisis or from new model runs.

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Factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the UK

Cited by 26 publications

References 9 publications

Outbreak investigations and genetic characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Ethiopia in 2008/2009

Outbreak investigations and genetic characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Ethiopia in 2008/2009

Comparing Network Analysis Measures to Determine Potential Epidemic Size of Highly Contagious Exotic Diseases in Fragmented Monthly Networks of Dairy Cattle Movements in Ontario, Canada

Resource Estimations in Contingency Planning for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

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