“…In times of an economic boom (associated with a higher world interest rate), the yield spreads are expected to fall, while in times of economic downturn (characterized by a lower world interest rate), the yield spreads are expected to rise. A negative relationship between the yield spread and the current level of the U.S. interest rate was found by Eichengreen and Mody (1998), Batten et al (2006) and Uribe and Yue (2006). Another strand of literature (e.g., Hartelius et al, 2008) argues that changes in the short-term U.S. interest rate captures changes in global liquidity.…”