Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight.

Human centred science and technology—transdisciplinary foresight and co-creation as tools for active needs-based innovation governance

“…For instance, the collaborative development of cross-cutting challenges for European policy making that demand coordinated policy actions was supported by forward-looking activities [20,21]. Especially when dealing with the Grand Challenges, Futures Studies need to attend to the distinctive role of challenging predictions that are mainly based on extrapolated past events by emphasizing on creativity to present true alternatives [9].…”

Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future

“…The lack of preparedness of governance systems to anticipate and cope with a combination of natural and man-made crises, has prompted institutional responses at national, European and international levels (Amanatidou et al 2012;Konnola et al 2012;van Rij 2010). In essence this is a shift towards generating longer-term impacts in society, economy and governance processes.…”

Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

“…There are obvious exceptions to this rule and more recently there has been a growing trend to use foresight to open up broader and exploratory debates, involving the public as well as experts (cf. Loveridge and Street 2005;Ko¨nno¨la¨et al 2012a). A key issue related to specific programmes and projects concerns the ability to absorb the results into decision-making processes.…”

“…Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communication technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services. Economies, socio-political and ecological systems are consequently under pressure to adapt, and undergo major structural and systemic shifts to new and more sustainable ways of innovating, producing and consuming (Ko¨nno¨la¨et al 2012a).…”

“…New types of organisations and institutions are needed, which are sufficiently agile to transform their policies and practices in response to challenges. There is a need to enhance anticipatory, absorptive and adaptive capabilities and capacities in society to address continuous as well as disruptive change and challenges (Ko¨nno¨la¨et al 2012a). Current practices of FTA require transformation through effective embedding of FTA in a user context of governance structures and processes at corporate and government levels.…”