Facing an uncertain future: how forest and people can adapt to climate change

Abstract

Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) CIFOR advances human wellbeing, environmental conservation, and equity by conducting research to inform policies and practices that affect forests in developing countries. CIFOR is one of 15 centres within the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). CIFOR's headquarters are in Bogor, Indonesia. It also has offices in Asia, Africa and South America. CIFOR works in over 30 countries worldwide and has links with researchers in 50 international, regional and national organisations. Preface v Acknowledgements vii Summary ix 1. Introduction 2. Adaptation for tropical forests 2.1. Vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change 2.2. Defining forest adaptation 2.3. Implementing forest adaptation 3. Tropical forests for adaptation 3.1. Ecosystem services and human wellbeing 3.2. Tropical forests for the adaptation of society 3.3. Mainstreaming tropical forests into adaptation policies 4. Conclusions Appendix: Understanding adaptation A.1. Climate change scenarios in the tropics A.2. Concepts of vulnerability A.3. What is adaptation? A.4. International policies and funds References Contents iv Boxes 1. Planning for climate change in the Amazon 2. National Policy Learning Group in Nepal 3. Shared learning 4. Future scenarios: learning together how to plan and prepare for the future 5. Vulnerability of carbon storage and the links between adaptation and mitigation 6. Principles and criteria for assessing the vulnerability of coupled human-environment systems 7. Afforestation and reforestation policies and adaptation to climate change in West Africa 8. Mainstreaming forest into adaptation and development policies in The Philippines 9. A policy research framework on actors, decision making and policy networks 10. Hydropower, forests and adaptation in Costa Rica: supporting adaptive decision making processes 4 11. The role of science in coordinating and supporting adaptive processes in West Africa 12. The ATEAM framework for assessing vulnerabilities 13. Vulnerable countries 14. An eight step approach for assessing vulnerabilities 15. The Adaptation Policy Framework 16. Costs and benefits of adaptation 17. UNFCCC adaptation funds Preface The science of climate change has come a long way since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (1992) and the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol (1997). We now recognise that some degree of climate change is inevitable, and even the best case scenario is going to have major impacts on global weather patterns and, consequently, people's lives-especially the poor. Mitigation of climate change is no longer enough. We have to adapt to the impending changes as they arise; or, better still, anticipate those changes by having adaptation strategies in place. Climate change adaptation is one of the four building blocks of the Bali Action Plan. Forests are a vital part of any global effort to address climate change. To date, however, forests have been mostly considered in the context of mitigation through reforestation, afforestati...