Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

How to Engage and Adapt to Unprecedented Extremes

“…Initially introduced by Schär et al (1996), this approach investigates how past weather situations might have behaved under future or preindustrial climate conditions, akin to anticipated climate changes (Aalbers et al, 2023;Hawkins et al, 2023). This method has several limitations (inaccuracies in future atmospheric dynamics representations (Rasmussen, 2011;Zhou et al, 2023) and distortions from anomalies in lateral boundary conditions (Matte et al, 2022)) Recent advances have enabled research centers with global models to enhance the study of extreme weather events, including compound events like hot-dry summers (Bevacqua et al, 2023), through large ensembles (Deser et al, 2014), creating diverse climate trajectories by slightly changing initial conditions. Using such ensembles of initialised climate models, it can be assumed that extreme events identified are physically plausibleproviding biases in the model itself are assessed and understood (Thompson et al, 2017;Kelder et al, 2022).…”