Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Catto, Jennifer L.

doi:10.1038/srep40359

Cited by 95 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(119 reference statements)

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“…By linking objectively identified fronts with estimates of precipitation, it has been shown that fronts are strongly associated with total and extreme precipitation in the midlatitudes (Catto et al. 2012; Catto and Pfahl 2013; Dowdy and Catto 2017; Utsumi et al. 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology

Catto

Raveh‐Rubin

2019

Clim Dyn

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Cold fronts are a primary feature of the day-to-day variability of weather in the midlatitudes, and feature in conceptual extratropical cyclone models alongside the dry intrusion airstream. Here the climatological frequency and spatial distribution of the co-occurrence of these two features are quantified, and the differences in cold front characteristics (intensity, size, and precipitation) when a dry intrusion is present or not are calculated. Fronts are objectively identified in the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset for the winter seasons in each hemisphere and split into three sub-types: central fronts (within a cyclone area); trailing fronts (outwith the cyclone area but connected to a central front); and isolated fronts (not connected to a cyclone). These are then associated with dry intrusions identified using Lagrangian trajectory analysis. Trailing fronts are most likely to be associated with a DI in both hemispheres, and this occurs more frequently in the western parts of the major storm track regions. Isolated fronts are linked to DIs more frequently on the eastern ends of the storm tracks, and in the subtropics. All front types, when co-occurring with a DI, are stronger in terms of their temperature gradient, are much larger in area, and typically have higher average precipitation. Therefore, climatologically the link with DIs increases the impact of cold fronts. There are some differences in the statistics of the precipitation for trailing and isolated fronts that are further investigated in Part II of this study from the front-centred perspective. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00382-019-04745-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology

Catto

Raveh‐Rubin

2019

Clim Dyn

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“…Northeast extreme precipitation can be attributed in 16% of the cases to nearby extratropical 87 cyclones, in 47% of the cases to frontal processes, and in 36% of the cases to tropical cyclones. 88 Dowdy and Catto (2017) found that the combination of a cyclone and a front is the most 89 common cause of extreme precipitation (6-hourly 99 th percentile) in the Northeast. 90…”

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confidence: 99%

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

et al. 2018

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25Previous work has identified six Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) of 26 dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with 27 extreme precipitation defined as the top one percent of daily station precipitation. Here, we 28 examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and 29 factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms 30 associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme 31 precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between 32 days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. 33The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two 34 troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. 35Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms 36 (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and 37 synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme 38 precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport 39 and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated 40 with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead 41 of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference 42 between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-43 level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the 44 relative importance varying between patterns. 45

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“…been studied both globally (Martius et al, 2016) and locally (Johansson and Chen, 2003;Ming et al, 2015). These two hazards are often associated with different types of storms (Dowdy and Catto, 2017) and in particular cyclones (Ming et al, 2015;Raveh-Rubin and Wernli, 2016). In South England, these two hazards are mostly associated with mid-latitude cyclones in the winter season and thunderstorms in summer season (Hawkes, 2008;Anderson and Klugmann, 2014;Webb and Elsom, 2016;515 Hendry et al, 2019).…”

Section: Rain and Wind Gusts At Heathrow Airport (Asymptotic Independmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches for multi-hazard scenarios

Tilloy¹,

Malamud²,

Winter³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Estimating risks generated by multi-hazard scenarios remains a challenge for practitioners. Here we evaluate the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches by fitting six distinct stochastic models to synthetic datasets. The properties of the synthetic datasets (marginal distributions, tail dependence structure) are chosen to match bivariate time series of environmental variables. The six models are copulas (one non-parametric, one semi-parametric, four parametric). We build 60 distinct synthetic datasets based on different parameters of log-normal margins and two different copulas. We contrast the model strengths (model flexibility) and weaknesses (poorer fits to the data). We find that no one model fits our synthetic data for all parameters, but rather a range of models are more appropriate To highlight the benefits of the systematic modelling framework developed, we consider the following environmental data: (i) daily precipitation and maximum wind gust in London, UK; (ii) daily mean temperature and wildfire number in Porto district, Portugal. In both cases there is good agreement in the estimation of bivariate return periods between models selected from the systematic framework developed in this study. Within this framework, we have explored a way to model multi-hazard events and identify the most efficient models for a given set of synthetic data and hazard sets.

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Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences

Cited by 95 publications

References 51 publications

Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology

Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

Evaluating the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches for multi-hazard scenarios

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