Extreme weather and climate events in <scp>Montenegro</scp> – case study, <scp>November</scp> 2019

Burić, Dragan; Doderović, Miroslav; Dragojlović, Jovan; Penjišević, Ivana

doi:10.1002/wea.3885

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 21 publications

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“…For example, during 2010, Montenegro faced heavy rain and floods three times-in January, November and especially at the beginning of December. Likewise, we can mention the examples of extreme weather on the Montenegrin coast on 9 June 2018, then in November 2019 [55]. The results for the two neighboring countries, Serbia and Croatia, based on the analysis of percentile and other climate indices, also demonstrate that in the period of 1961-2010, no significant changes were registered in the frequency of precipitation extremes [56,57].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Trend of Percentile Climate Indices in Montenegro in the Period 1961–2020

Burić

Doderović

2022

Sustainability

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The purpose of this study is to determine the frequency trend of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Montenegro. Firstly, using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method (MASHv3.02), the accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as daily precipitation, from 18 meteorological stations in Montenegro during 1961–2020, was examined. Using percentile distributions, one of the most objective methods in researching modern climate change, time series were formed for four temperature and four precipitation percentile indices on a seasonal and annual level. Finally, the trend was calculated using the Sen Method, while the significance was tested using the Mann–Kendall test. The obtained results demonstrate that there is a significant warming in Montenegro, because the number frequency trend of cold days and nights/warm days and nights decreases/increases (annually up to: −12.9, −18.4, 7.0 and 6.8 days/decade). The trend in the frequency of very wet, moderately wet, moderately dry and very dry days is insignificant, but indicates slight aridization. Significant warming increases water evaporation, which, with additional slight aridization, can pose a problem in the functioning of natural systems as well as in the life and work of the citizens.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Trend of Percentile Climate Indices in Montenegro in the Period 1961–2020

Burić

Doderović

2022

Sustainability

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Deciphering the breaking points and spectral periodicities of mean air temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro

Burić,

Mihajlović,

Luković

et al. 2024

Environ Earth Sci

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Detected and projected temperature changes in the area of Mediterranean Montenegro

Burić

2024

Geographical Journal

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The goal of this research is to present the results of a detailed analysis of detected and projected temperature changes in Montenegro. A total of 10 temperature parameters from 18 meteorological stations were used. Initially, an analysis of temperature changes during the instrumental period (1961–2020) was conducted, followed by the results of high‐resolution (12.5 km) bias‐corrected projections from the regional ALADIN, REMO and CCLM4 models for the period 2021–2100, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (representative concentration pathways). The simple difference method and trend method were employed for research purposes. Compared with the period 1961–1990, the highest temperature increase during 1991–2020 is observed in summer (TSu), while the rates of increase were slower in spring, winter and autumn (TSp, TW and TA). The average annual maximum temperature (TYx) registered a higher increase compared with the average minimum (TYn). Frosty days (FD) decreased, while the number of summer and tropical days (SU and TD) increased. The projection results indicate that the period 2021–2050 is expected to be warmer, the period 2051–2080 even warmer, and the period 2081–2100 is expected to be the warmest. In the last analysed period (2081–2100), according to the RCP8.5 scenario, the average TSu is expected to be higher by 3.7–4.6°C (CCLM4), 4.1–4.7°C (ALADIN) and 4.7–5.8°C (REMO), with an anticipated increase in TW ranging between 3.3–4.5°C (ALADIN), 3.6–5.4°C (CCLM4) and 3.4–5.6°C (REMO). In the period 2021–2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, the expected average trend values for TYx (TYn) are expected to be (°C/decade) 0.24 (0.26), 0.16 (0.12) and 0.20 (0.23) for the ALADIN, REMO and CCLM4 models, respectively, and according to the RCP8.5 scenario, 0.47 (0.52), 0.63 (0.57) and 0.51 (0.53), respectively. These findings have implications for planning mitigation and adaptation measures to address climate change, particularly in strategic economic sectors such as tourism, agriculture and water management in Montenegro.

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Extreme weather and climate events in Montenegro – case study, November 2019

Cited by 5 publications

References 21 publications

Trend of Percentile Climate Indices in Montenegro in the Period 1961–2020

Trend of Percentile Climate Indices in Montenegro in the Period 1961–2020

Deciphering the breaking points and spectral periodicities of mean air temperatures and precipitation sums in Montenegro

Detected and projected temperature changes in the area of Mediterranean Montenegro

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