Extreme sea levels at Rapa Nui (Easter Island) during intense atmospheric rivers

Carvajal, Matías; Winckler, Patricio; Garreaud, René; Igualt, Felipe; Contreras-López, Manuel; Averil, Pamela; Cisternas, Marco; Gubler, Alejandra; Breuer, Wolfgang Alejandro

doi:10.1007/s11069-020-04462-2

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Links should be established between ARs and sea‐level extremes on a more global basis (cf. Carvajal et al., 2021; Ridder et al., 2018). We used the AR catalog of Gershunov et al.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Tide Floods and Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast

Piecuch

Coats

Dangendorf

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow filaments of strong horizontal water vapor transport in the lower troposphere, typically associated with cold fronts of extratropical cyclones (Cordeira et al., 2013;Ralph et al., 2004Ralph et al., , 2017. ARs play an important role in the hydrological cycle, accomplishing most of the poleward moisture transport in the atmosphere at midlatitudes (Newman et al., 2012;Zhu & Newell, 1998). Landfalling ARs can be forced upwards by orography, leading to extreme precipitation and a range of hydrological impacts (Neiman et al., 2008). In California, for example, precipitation due to ARs has ended droughts and caused floods, landslides, and other debris flows (

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“…Links should be established between ARs and sea‐level extremes on a more global basis (cf. Carvajal et al., 2021; Ridder et al., 2018). We used the AR catalog of Gershunov et al.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Tide Floods and Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast

Piecuch

Coats

Dangendorf

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The last decade studies have shown that Rapa Nui people have developed advanced eco-friendly gardens in the central parts of the island (Hunt & Lipo, 2012, Lima et al, 2020. There are indications that a giant tsunami wave (Pollard et al) or extreme rains caused by so-called atmospheric rivers could sweep the Rapa Nui (Carvaja et al, 2021) and destroy food resources. The importance of the above factors can be significant and complicate the picture of Rapa Nui population changes.…”

Section: Population Evolution : Microbiology Parallel and The Rapa Nu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Story about One Island and Four Cities. The Socio-Economic Soft Matter Model - Based Report.

Rzoska¹,

Drozd-Rzoska²

2023

Socratic Lectures 8

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The report discusses the emergence of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter as the consequence of interactions between physics and economy, since the onset of modern times. First, using soft matter science tools, demographic changes since the Industrial Revolution times onset are tested. It is supported by innovative derivative-sensitive and distortions-sensitive analytic tools. All these revealed for population changes the Weibult-type powered exponential description, with the crossover to the lesser rising pattern emerging after the year 1970. Subsequently, population changes are tested for the Rapa Nui (Easter) Island model case and for four selected model cities where the rise and decay phases have occured. They are Detroit and Cleveland in USA and Łódź (Lodz, the former textile industry center), and Bytom (the former coal mining center) in Poland. The analysis shows universal scaling patterns for population changes, coupled to the scocio-economic background impact, revealing also the long-lasting determinism. Finally, sources of obtained universal behavior are discussed in the frame of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter concept. Keywords: Demography; Socio-economy; Soft Matter; Weilbul distribution; Rapa Nui; Post-industrial cities

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“…6, we see that the key Cluster 4 events can actually be caused by a wide variety of synoptic phenomena. We first look at the correspondence between these events and atmospheric rivers, which are known to sometimes cause extreme sea level rise on Rapa Nui (Carvajal et al 2021). We use the atmospheric river algorithm tested in Reid et al (2020) to calculate all atmospheric rivers in the Southern Hemisphere in ERA5 for the period of our analyses .…”

Section: Caption)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Large infrequent rain events dominate the hydroclimate of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

et al. 2022

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The history of the Polynesian civilization on Rapa Nui (Easter Island) over the Common Era has come to exemplify the fragile relationship humans have with their environment. Social dynamics, deforestation, land degradation, and climatic shifts have all been proposed as important parts of the settlement history and societal transformations on Rapa Nui. Furthermore, climate dynamics of the Southeast Pacific have major global implications. While the wetlands of Rapa Nui contain critical sedimentological archives for reconstructing past hydrological change on the island, connections between the island’s hydroclimate and fundamental aspects of regional climatology are poorly understood. Here we present a hydroclimatology of Rapa Nui showing that there is a clear seasonal cycle of precipitation, with wet months receiving almost twice as much precipitation as dry months. This seasonal cycle can be explained by the seasonal shifts in the location and strength of the climatological south Pacific subtropical anticyclone. For interannual precipitation variability, we find that the occurrence of infrequent, large rain events explains 92% of the variance of the observed annual mean precipitation time series. Approximately one third (33%) of these events are associated with atmospheric rivers, 21% are associated with classic cold-front synoptic systems, and the remainder are characterized by cut-off lows and other synoptic-scale storm systems. As a group, these large rain events are most strongly controlled by the longitudinal position of the south Pacific subtropical anticyclone. The longitudinal location of this anticyclone explains 21% of the variance in the frequency of large rain events, while the remaining variance is left unexplained by any other major atmosphere-ocean dynamics. We find that over the observational era there appears to be no linear relationship between the number of large rain events and any other major climate phenomena. With the south Pacific subtropical anticyclone projected to strengthen and expand westward under global warming, our results imply that Rapa Nui will experience an increase in the number of dry years in the future.

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Extreme sea levels at Rapa Nui (Easter Island) during intense atmospheric rivers

Cited by 15 publications

References 23 publications

High‐Tide Floods and Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast

High‐Tide Floods and Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast

The Story about One Island and Four Cities. The Socio-Economic Soft Matter Model - Based Report.

Large infrequent rain events dominate the hydroclimate of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

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