Extreme Risk Makes the Journey Feasible: Decision-Making amongst Migrants in the Horn of Africa

Abstract

This article explores how some potential migrants in the Horn of Africa incorporate the prospects of extreme danger into their journeys. It draws on evidence from qualitative interviews and focus group discussions with over 400 respondents, mainly from Ethiopian and Somali communities. It shows that the risks of migration within the Horn of Africa are often well known, thanks to strong migrant networks and improved mobile communications. Indeed, migrants may be better informed of the risks of the journey than they are about their prospects of securing a good living upon arrival. However, rather than discouraging people’s migration, high risk may open up new possibilities. This article supports this argument with two examples. First, as Yemen descended into civil war, the breakdown of state control created new opportunities to move undetected, notwithstanding the threat of injury and death. This helps explain why the number of Ethiopians passing through Yemen increased with the conflict, contrary to expectations. Second, some young Somalis are soliciting the services of smugglers to help them move towards Europe, knowing that they are likely to be abused and held for ransom en route. They gamble on their captors’ demands being met by family members, who would not otherwise have endorsed or paid for their journey. These findings challenge common assumptions about risk and decision-making, and suggests that some migrants may move because of, rather than in spite of, the risks involved. It also calls into question initiatives that seek to deter migration by raising awareness about the risks of the journey.

How migration information campaigns shape local perceptions and discourses of migration in Harar city, Ethiopia

“…One is that enhanced risk perception does not necessarily discourage people from trying to migrate irregularly. As research has shown, the target audience of migration‐information campaigns is well aware and informed about the risks of migration and life at places of destination (Bakewell & Sturridge, 2021; Nshimbi, 2021) Moreover, migrants and asylum seekers are far from being mere recipients of migration management discourses; they create and select different channels of information. The second limitation is that government measures to create jobs and provide education to prevent irregular migration are not sufficient to tackle the structural problems of unemployment and lack of opportunities.…”

Inside the ‘efficacy gap’: Migration policy and the dynamics of encounter

“…But so too does it also relate to questions around how individuals receiving this information work with it. In some cases, the acquisition of more knowledge about the risks of travel is simply not enough to dissuade migration; they are risks that people already know about and are willing to shoulder (Bakewell & Sturridge, 2021). In others, the knowledge transferred by these campaigns ‘from above’ may be undermined or contested by competing claims to knowledge sought and found elsewhere.…”

“…But so too does it also relate to questions around how individuals receiving this information work with it. In some cases, the acquisition of more knowledge about the risks of travel is simply not enough to dissuade migration; they are risks that people already know about and are willing to shoulder (Bakewell & Sturridge, 2021).…”