Extreme Rainfall in the Mediterranean: What Can We Learn from Observations?

Rebora, Nicola; Molini, L.; Casella, Elisa; Comellas, A.; Fiori, Elisabetta; Pignone, Flavio; Siccardi, F.; Silvestro, Francesco; Tanelli, Simone; Parodi, Antonio

doi:10.1175/jhm-d-12-083.1

Cited by 131 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Due to self-regenerating storm cells or to persistent cyclonic Tyrrhenian circulation (Crosta 1998;Cevasco et al 2009), extreme precipitation can occur, between late summer and mid-autumn, along the coast of eastern Liguria (van Delden 2001;Silvestro et al 2012Silvestro et al , 2015Rebora et al 2013;Buzzi et al 2014;Cevasco et al 2015;Cassola et al 2016). Usually these rainstorms have short duration (<24 h), but rainfall intensities can reach or exceed values of 100 mm h ¡1 .…”

Section: General Features Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Shallow landslide initiation on terraced slopes: inferences from a physically based approach

Schilirò

Cevasco

Esposito

et al. 2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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In the last years, great efforts have been made to improve the assessment of the temporal and spatial occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Therefore, in this paper we used a physically based stability model (TRIGRS) in order to reproduce the landslide event occurred in the Monterosso catchment (Cinque Terre, Eastern Liguria, Italy) on 25 October 2011. The input parameters of the numerical model have been evaluated taking into account the land-use setting and paying specific attention to the evaluation of the spatial variation of soil thickness on terraced areas. The resulting safety factor maps have been compared with the inventory map of the landslides triggered during the event. The simulation results, which have been obtained also considering four different spatial resolutions of the digital terrain model, emphasize the influence of land use in shallow landslide occurrence and indicate the importance of a realistic spatial variation of soil thickness to enhance the reliability of the model. Finally, different triggering scenarios have been defined using hourly rainfall values statistically derived from historical data. The results indicate the proneness of the area to shallow landsliding, given that rainfall events with a relatively low return period (e.g. 25 years) can trigger numerous slope failures.

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Section: General Features Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Shallow landslide initiation on terraced slopes: inferences from a physically based approach

Schilirò

Cevasco

Esposito

et al. 2018

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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“…From a meteorological point of view, the 25OCT2011 rainfall event was deeply investigated by Buzzi et al (2014) using a numerical weather model and by Rebora et al (2013) using the measurements available from a large number of sensors, both ground based and space borne. In this latter paper, the authors concluded that the large-scale features of the event and the complex geographical characteristics of the area determined the conditions for the persistence of heavy precipitations over the same region, i.e.…”

Section: Study Case 25 October 2011mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, Tuscany region and nearby areas (central Italy), have been hit by noticeably heavy rainfall events (Parodi et al, 2012;Sacchi, 2012;Avanzi et al, 2013;Rebora et al, 2013;Fiori et al, 2014;Buzzi et al, 2014;Perna et al, 2015). In particular the northwestern part of the Tuscany region is very prone to frequent and severe rainstorms, due to its geographical position and its steep orography close to the sea, making this area one of the wettest in northern and central Italy (Brunetti et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Subsequently the rainstorm that affected the MassaCarrara area on 31 October 2010 triggered hundreds of landslides (Avanzi et al, 2013). On 25 October 2011 a mesoscale convective system (Rebora et al, 2013) caused large precipitations amounts in the Magra River valley; flash floods, landslides and debris flows occurred in the area causing huge economic losses and 13 fatalities (Rebora et al, 2013;Galve et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical modelling of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding using static predictors and numerical weather predictions: preliminary results

Capecchi

Perna

Crisci

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Our study is aimed at estimating the added value provided by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data for the modelling and prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We implemented a quantitative indirect statistical modelling of such phenomena by using, as input predictors, both geomorphological, geological, climatological information and numerical data obtained by running a limitedarea weather model. Two standard statistical techniques are used to combine the predictor variables: a generalized linear model and Breiman's random forests. We tested these models for two rainfall events that occurred in 2011 and 2013 in Tuscany region (central Italy). Modelling results are compared with field data and the forecasting skill is evaluated by mean of sensitivity-specificity receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the 2011 rainfall event, the random forests technique performs slightly better than generalized linear model with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values around 0.91 vs. 0.84. In the 2013 rainfall event, both models provide AUC values around 0.7.Using the variable importance output provided by the random forests algorithm, we assess the added value carried by numerical weather forecast. The main results are as follows: (i) for the rainfall event that occurred in 2011 most of the NWP data, and in particular hourly rainfall intensities, are classified as "important" and (ii) for the rainfall event that occurred in 2013 only NWP soil moisture data in the first centimetres below ground is found to be relevant for landslide assessment. In the discussions we argue how these results are connected to the type of precipitation observed in the two events.

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“…Within small and densely urbanized areas, intensive and stationary precipitation events can rapidly result in dangerous floods, sometimes leading to disastrous consequences (e.g. Silvestro et al, 2012;Rebora et al, 2013;. This stresses the importance of such events through their impacts on the social and economic circumstances of local communities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

Ivančan-Picek

Tudor

Horvath

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air-sea interactions.

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Extreme Rainfall in the Mediterranean: What Can We Learn from Observations?

Cited by 131 publications

References 31 publications

Shallow landslide initiation on terraced slopes: inferences from a physically based approach

Shallow landslide initiation on terraced slopes: inferences from a physically based approach

Statistical modelling of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding using static predictors and numerical weather predictions: preliminary results

Overview of the first HyMeX special observation period over Croatia

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