Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; Salinger, Jim; He, Hong S.; Li, Mai‐He; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Rusticucci, Matilde; Srivastava, Arvind K.; Zhai, Panmao; Lippmann, Tanya; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Paula Regina de; Adrees, Muhammad; Hou, Wei; Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e; Lúcio, Paulo Sérgio; Wu, Zhengfang

doi:10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…Analysis of the potential mechanisms leading to the asymmetrical shift of precipitation has identified warming as a major contributor (Goswami et al, 2007;Kong et al, 2020;Sun et al, 2016). To this point, the urban heat island (UHI), the phenomenon of a significant warmer urban areas than the surrounding rural regions, may further affect the asymmetrical variations of rainfall events (Du et al, 2022;Zhu et al, 2019). For example, Yu et al (2022) reported the asymmetrical shift toward less light and more heavy rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta intensified by the rapid urban expansion.…”

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confidence: 99%

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

et al. 2023

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Urbanization has become a prominent anthropogenic activity globally, resulting in the substantial modification of temperature and rainfall in and around urban areas. Studies also indicate that rainfall exhibits an asymmetrical shift from light to extreme rainfall, causing both floods and droughts over different parts of the globe. However, to what extent urbanization influences the asymmetrical changes in rainfall and urban drought remains understudied. Accordingly, we provided an investigation of the urbanization effects on both rainfall and drought events from both statistical and model‐based perspectives. Results showed that urbanization generally increased heavy rainfall and decreased light rainfall in the rainy season over five urban agglomerations (i.e., Yangtze River Delta [YRD], Middle Region of Yangtze River [MRYR], Chengdu‐Chongqing, Guizhou, and Yunnan) in the Yangtze River Basin during 1981–2020. Specifically, urbanization contributed 42.7% and 30.8% of the increases of heavy rainfall in MRYR and YRD while 30.6% contribution to the decrease of light rainfall. Interestingly, results suggested that the urban regions were more prone to drought due to urbanization. Nevertheless, we also found that the urbanization effects showed some variabilities across different areas due to the interactions with complex terrains and climate patterns. Further model‐based simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model confirmed our findings and helped understand the potential underlying mechanism. The current research is expected to provide scientific knowledge for better urban planning and preparedness for urbanization‐induced hazards.

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confidence: 99%

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

et al. 2023

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“…Finally, the relative contribution of precipitation intensity (RC PI ) and temporal clustering of extreme precipitation (RC TC ) to CEP frequency changes were quantitatively calculated as (Du et al ., 2022),

R {normalC}_{PI} = |F_{PI}| / (|F_{PI}| + |F_{TC}|) \times 100,

R {normalC}_{TC} = |F_{TC}| / (|F_{PI}| + |F_{TC}|) \times 100,

where |*| represents the absolute value of *. Because F PI or F TC could be negative, we used the absolute value to avoid a relative contribution greater than 100%.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the difference in changes in CEP frequency and changes in adjusted CEP frequency (the change in CEP frequency minus the changes in adjusted CEP frequency between both periods) would then indicate the effect related to F PI . Finally, the relative contribution of precipitation intensity (RC PI ) and temporal clustering of extreme precipitation (RC TC ) to CEP frequency changes were quantitatively calculated as (Du et al, 2022),…”

Section: Relative Contribution Of Driving Factors To Cep Frequency Ch...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The annual CEP frequency time series for individual grid cells or regional averages were first normalized by F I G U R E 1 Spatial pattern of dry (pink masks) and wet (blue masks) regions of China dividing by the climatological mean from 1961 to 2018, which ensured that the value was not dominated by regional large values (Donat et al, 2016;Du et al, 2022). Then, we used the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to calculate the temporal trend, and estimated the significance of the trend by the Mann-Kendall test.…”

Section: Analysis Of Long-term Changes In Cep Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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More frequent consecutive extreme precipitation in the dry regions of China

Huang

Dang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation extremes occurring on consecutive days may be of crucial importance for the formation of extensive and long-lasting flooding. Changes in such consecutive extreme precipitation (CEP) events between different regions (i.e., dry and wet regions) still remain unclear in China, which may result in different impacts on human livelihoods and ecosystems. Here, the changes in CEP frequency between dry and wet regions of China were studied by utilizing an observation-based gridded precipitation dataset. We further determined the driving factors of the changes in CEP frequency by separating the effects of precipitation intensification and temporal clustering of daily extreme precipitation. Our results showed that the CEP frequency in dry regions increased faster (9.73%Ádecade −1 ) compared with wet regions (1.14%Ádecade −1 ) during the last $60 years. The increasing precipitation intensity primarily (over 90%) resulted in the increases of CEP events. However, changes in the temporal clustering of daily extreme precipitation can benefit the effects of the changes in precipitation intensity in dry regions but can reverse these effects in wet regions. In dry regions, the regression relationship of precipitation intensity and temperature (7.38%Á C −1 ) was stronger than that in wet regions (3.44%Á C −1 ), suggesting that the same magnitude of warming would cause greater precipitation intensity and consequently cause more frequent CEP events in dry regions. Therefore, as the intensification of precipitation and the increasing temporal clustering of daily extreme precipitation, more CEP events may increase the flooding risk in dry regions over China with a stronger warming signal.climate warming, consecutive extreme precipitation, dry and wet regions, precipitation intensity, temporal clustering | INTRODUCTIONGlobal climate warming is expected to enhance the hydrological cycle (Allen and Ingram, 2002;Durack et al., 2012;Zahn and Allan, 2013), accompanying with an increase of the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events (Allan and Soden, 2008;Papalexiou and Montanari, 2019). Short-duration extreme precipitation events often lead to sudden and small-scale natural hazards, such as flash flooding (Norbiato et al., 2008). However, if daily extreme precipitation occurs consecutively, with great potential to cause large-scale and long-lasting

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“…From the time perspective, large values of 𝑅(𝑡) indicate the most stationary periods. A minimum threshold is often defined to separate stationary from non-stationary periods: for instance, 2 days for weather regimes (De Luca et al, 2019;Francis et al, 2020) and extreme precipitation (Du et al, 2022), 5-6 days for warm spells (Berkovic and Raveh-Rubin, 2022;Rousi et al, 2022b), 5-25 days for geopotential anomalies (Dole and Gordon, 1983), or 2 seasons for droughts (Ford and Labosier, 2014). In the phase space, the stationarity of any state x 0 can be described from the distribution of its residence times 𝑅 x 0 ∼ P {𝑅(𝑡) s.t.…”

Section: Residence Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review

Tuel

Martius

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Persistence is an important concept in meteorology. It refers to surface weather or the atmospheric circulation either remaining in approximately the same state (stationarity) or repeatedly occupying the same state (recurrence) over some prolonged period of time. Persistence can be found at many different timescales; however, the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is especially relevant in terms of impacts and atmospheric predictability. For these reasons, S2S persistence has been attracting increasing attention by the scientific community. The dynamics responsible for persistence and their potential evolution under climate change are a notable focus of active research. However, one important challenge facing the community is how to define persistence, from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Despite a general agreement on the concept, many different definitions and perspectives have been proposed over the years, among which it is not always easy to find one’s way. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss existing concepts of weather persistence, associated methodologies and physical interpretations. In particular, we call attention to the fact that persistence can be defined as a global or as a local property of a system, with important implications in terms of methods but also impacts. We also highlight the importance of timescale and similarity metric selection, and illustrate some of the concepts using the example of summertime atmospheric circulation over Western Europe.

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Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Cited by 37 publications

References 50 publications

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Urbanization Amplified Asymmetrical Changes of Rainfall and Exacerbated Drought: Analysis Over Five Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Basin, China

More frequent consecutive extreme precipitation in the dry regions of China

Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review

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