Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling

Nayak, Sridhara; Dairaku, Koji; Takayabu, Izuru; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka; Ishizaki, Noriko N.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3866-8

Cited by 37 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…Previous studies did not give enough consideration to this topic because their main objective was to investigate the relationship of extreme precipitation events with temperature. Although the increase of atmospheric water vapor with temperature is obvious from the CC relationship as well as some previous studies (e.g., Allen and Ingram, 2002;Held and Soden, 2006;Nayak and Dairaku, 2016;Nayak et al, 2017), it is unclear if a relationship between extreme precipitable water events and temperature changes exists and if it follows the CC relationship. How robust is this relationship in both hemispheres and latitude intervals?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Dependence of extreme precipitable water events on temperature

Nayak

Takemi

2019

Atm

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Informes recientes del IPCC sugieren que el mundo se está calentando. Como resultado, la concentración atmosférica de vapor de agua, que determina el agua precipitable, está aumentando de manera considerable en concordancia con la relación Clausius-Clapeyron (cc), la cual establece que el vapor de agua en la atmósfera se incrementa a razón de 7% por cada grado centígrado de calentamiento. En este estudio se explora la relación entre eventos extremos de agua precipitable y la temperatura a nivel global, en ambos hemisferios, y en las bandas latitudinales de 5º, utilizando para ello datos de reanálisis de NCEP/NCAR y MERRA-2 correspondientes al periodo 1980-2017. Nuestros resultados indican que los eventos extremos de precipitación vinculados con temperatura obedecen básicamente a la relación CC para temperaturas por debajo de los 5ºC y a una relación sub-CC para temperaturas por encima de los 5ºC a nivel global y en ambos hemisferios. La relación entre eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura en regiones latitudinales no es uniforme y presenta variaciones regionales. Los resultados indican también que el incremento en la tasa de eventos de precipitación extrema es mayor en los trópicos y latitudes medias del hemisferio sur en comparación con los del hemisferio norte. Este estudio demuestra la utilidad de la relación CC para explicar eventos de precipitación extrema vinculados a la temperatura.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Dependence of extreme precipitable water events on temperature

Nayak

Takemi

2019

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“…et al 2006), NRAMS (Pielke et al 1992), WRF (Skamarock et al 2008), and RSM (Juang 2000). These RCMs are selected based on their extensive applications around Japan (Iizumi et al 2011;Ishizaki et al 2012;Ham et al 2016;Kusaka et al 2016;Nayak and Dairaku 2016;Nayak et al 2017). The horizontal resolution is commonly set at 20 km with the model domain covering the Japanese islands and the surrounding vicinity ( Fig.…”

Section: Quantifying Sources Of Uncertainty By Two-way Analysis Of Vamentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions of GCM/RCM Uncertainty in Ensemble Dynamical Downscaling for Precipitation in East Asian Summer Monsoon Season

Suzuki-Parker

Kusaka

Takayabu³

et al. 2018

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Targeting to East Asian summer monsoon for the first time, this study presents an assessment of projection uncertainty in ensemble dynamical downscaling (DDS) simulations. Based on 12-member DDS simulations comprised of three global climate models (GCMs) and four regional climate models (RCMs), we evaluate contributions of GCM and RCM uncertainty to the total uncertainty of summertime precipitation projections around Japan. Our results show that contribution of RCM uncertainty can be comparable to that of GCM uncertainty in magnitudes. This finding draws a distinction from the past studies showing the dominance of GCM uncertainty. Most notably, our results show that RCM uncertainty for number of precipitating days appears around and over the land. RCM uncertainty for precipitation amounts also shows a dependence on topography but to a lessor degree. These RCM uncertainty characteristics are potentially linked to the difference in various RCM configurations such as physics schemes and model topography. In contrast, GCM uncertainty mostly appears over the ocean, which can be attributed to the difference in the GCM's future projections of East Asian summer monsoon. Our finding may be of an importance for water disaster and water resource management with DDS.

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“…However, while analyses of temperature and precipitation changes in Japan are abundant (e.g., Ogata et al 2014, Nayak et al 2017, Suzuki-Parker et al 2018, Yokoyama et al 2019, studies on the future projections of the SW in Japan are limited. Wild et al (2015) examined the global-scale future projections of the SW of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, Taylor et al 2012) ensemble up to the year 2049 under representative concentration pathway 8.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting Future Climate Projections of Surface Solar Radiation in Japan

Shiogama

Ito

Imada

et al. 2020

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The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW. In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty Shiogama et al., Selecting future climate projections of surface solar radiation in Japan 2 ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.

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Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling

Cited by 37 publications

References 33 publications

Dependence of extreme precipitable water events on temperature

Dependence of extreme precipitable water events on temperature

Contributions of GCM/RCM Uncertainty in Ensemble Dynamical Downscaling for Precipitation in East Asian Summer Monsoon Season

Selecting Future Climate Projections of Surface Solar Radiation in Japan

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