Extreme precipitation events in the Polish Carpathians and their synoptic determinants

Abstract

Abstract⎯ Heavy rainfalls and consequent floods are the most important extreme events in Central Europe in terms of frequency and economic losses. The purpose of the study is to evaluate regional extreme precipitation events in the Polish Carpathian Mountains as well as to determine the circulation basis for these events. Extreme precipitation values were identified based on daily precipitation totals measured at almost 70 weather stations in the Polish Carpathians between 1951 and 2015. The analysis concentrates on daily mean areal precipitation totals in excess of 100 mm per day as well as 50 and 30 mm, which causes flooding in the Carpathians. All extreme precipitation data were analyzed from a synoptic perspective, with special attention paid to pressure patterns over Central Europe. The analysis confirms that the heaviest rainfalls are affected by the situations with the N-NE airflow. However, analyses with the application of the upper tropospheric data brought some new findings on the precipitation extreme topic. It turned out that most cases with significant rains occurred when the mid-tropospheric advection was from the southern sector (during the typical N and NE advections in the lower part).

A semi‐objective circulation pattern classification scheme for the semi‐arid Northeast Brazil

“…In this study, we followed a typical “circulation to environment” approach, in which the CP classification (here: the SANDRA algorithm) is performed as a separate step that typify significant modes of the atmospheric circulation. After the classification, the CPs are linked to environmental phenomena at surface, such as heavy precipitation events causing high‐runoff episodes (e.g., Prudhomme and Genevier, 2011; Wypych et al ., 2018; Bednorz et al ., 2019) or droughts (e.g., Dayan et al ., 2012; Burgdorf et al ., 2019).…”

“…In the former, the classification is performed without consideration of the target variable, whereas the latter accounts for the target variable(s) during the classification. Both approaches are suitable tools in synoptic climatology, and they can be applied both to analyse the link between atmospheric circulation types derived from CP classifications and surface variables such as, precipitation, temperature, or discharge (e.g., Bárdossy et al ., 2002; Bárdossy, 2010; Wypych et al ., 2018; Bednorz et al ., 2019). Such links exist even when the local scale climate is driven by mesoscale events such as convective systems, since these are conditional on the synoptic conditions (Goodess and Jones, 2002).…”

Classification of Synoptic Conditions of Summer Floods in Polish Sudeten Mountains

“…The humid air masses of southern origin lift slowly over the colder air-layer while moving northwards, which indicates a typical warm front structure. The relevance of the upper tropospheric transport was emphasized by Wypych et al [22] who analyzed synoptic determinants of extreme precipitation events in the Polish Carpathians. They found a similar pattern of air flow, causing extreme rainfall, as recognized in this study, namely, the collision of warm southerly air which transports huge amounts of water in the mid-troposphere, with cool air from the north.…”

“…Such pattern reminds to a certain degree, the conditions of so-called Spanish Plume over the United Kingdom, which appears in the summer months and leads to extreme weather events such as extreme high temperatures, intense rainfall with potential for flash flooding and damaging hail storms, etc. [22,59,60].…”

Precipitation in the Czech Republic in Light of Subjective and Objective Classifications of Circulation Types

“…In a number of other countries, similar classifications, better fitted to a given territory, have been developed and employed in climatological studies, for example, in Poland (e.g., Refs. [9][10][11][12][13][14]) or Hungary (e.g., Refs. [15][16][17][18][19]).…”