Extreme events in Venice and in the North Adriatic Sea: 28–29 October 2018

Morucci, Sara; Coraci, Elisa; Crosato, Franco; Ferla, Maurizio

doi:10.1007/s12210-020-00882-1

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…2). Only seven tidal constituents, four semidiurnal (M2, S2, N2 and K2) and three diurnal (K1, O1 and P1), give a significant contribution to the evolution of sea surface elevation in the northern Adriatic Sea, reaching a range of 1 m in the Trieste bay (Polli, 1961;Mosetti and Manca, 1972;Cushmain-Roisin et al, 2001;Orlić, 2001;Book et al, 2009) and resulting in a mixed, mainly semidiurnal tidal regime (Ferrarin et al, 2015, and references therein). The tidal form factor, consisting of the ratio of the amplitudes of the major diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituents, reveals that the semidiurnal tidal regime (F < 1) prevails in the Adriatic Sea, although the tide maintains a diurnal character (F > 3) in the proximity of the semidiurnal amphidromic points located in the middle of central Adriatic Sea (Ursella and Gacic, 2001;Lovato et al, 2010;Ferrarin et al, 2017).…”

Section: Tidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Umgiesser

Bajo

Ferrarin

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

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Section: Tidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Umgiesser

Bajo

Ferrarin

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…In Italy, the increasing frequency of coastal floods has been driven by an average sea level rise of 47 cm over the past 150 years [101], and sinking of the coast by natural and anthropogenic subsidence [102]. In Venice, the Italian coastal city most prone to flooding, the impacts of sea level rise are managed by mobile infrastructure called MOSE (Italian acronym for MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) and by constructed esthetic landscapes with little impact on the environment, according to the community and local institutions [103].…”

Section: Mobile Damsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Mitigation in Mediterranean Coastal Regions: Problems, Solutions, and Stakeholder Involvement

et al. 2021

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Flooding affects Mediterranean coastal areas, with negative impacts on regional populations and ecosystems. This paper reviews the causes and consequences of coastal flooding in European Mediterranean countries, common and advanced solutions implemented to mitigate flood risk, and the importance of stakeholder involvement in developing these solutions. Climate change, intensive urbanization, tourism, deforestation, wildfires, and erosion are the main causes of coastal flooding, leading to social and economic losses, degradation of ecosystems, and water and soil contamination due to saltwater intrusion. Various measures for mitigating urban coastal flooding have been implemented, including coastal barriers, infrastructural drainage systems, wetlands, and mobile dams. Development and implementation of such solutions should be performed in close collaboration with stakeholders, but their current engagement at the coordination and/or decision-making level does not allow full integration of local knowledge in flood mitigation projects. Various processes are used to engage stakeholders in coastal flood mitigation, but participatory approaches are required to integrate their perspectives into performance analysis of potential solutions. Such approaches would allow a balance to be reached between nature conservation, market forces, stakeholder needs, and decision-makers’ priorities, resulting in development of innovative and sustainable mitigation solutions to enhance urban resilience to coastal flooding.

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“…In October 2018 and November 2019, Venice and the North Adriatic have been exposed to extreme marine conditions (sea 140 level, waves) in turn induced by extreme weather conditions (Morucci et al, 2020). A complete list of other extreme events can be found in Lionello et al (this issue).…”

Section: The City Of Venicementioning

confidence: 99%

“…years 2012, 2014 and 2015, when a strong Bora wind was blowing (ISPRA, 2012;Coraci and Crosato, 2014). On the other hand Sirocco winds (south-easterly), blowing towards the North Adriatic Sea along the main basin axis, push water masses towards the Venice lagoon, particularly on the northern areas (Mariani et al, 2015).The combination of all these local effects 520 and climate change (Rinaldo et al, 2008) could lead to severe and disastrous storm surge events, as happened during the last two years (October 2018, November 2019; Morucci et al, 2020;AAVV, 2020).…”

Section: Local Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the crucial effect of climate changes, in the last century the city of Venice faced an increase in frequency and intensity of flooding events that periodically submerge parts of the old city center (Lionello et al, this issue). The highest water level 650 occurred in 1966 (194 cm ZMPS) followed by two more recent events in October 2018 (156 cm ZMPS, Cavaleri et al, 2019) and in November 2019 (189 cm ZMPS, Cavaleri et al, 2020), the latter much worse, but the former potentially more dangerous (Morucci et al, 2020). According to Lionello et al (this issue) the relative extreme sea level is composed by the contribution of various factors: astronomical tide, seiche, storm surge, long-lasting sea level anomalies due to planetary atmospheric waves (PAW), meteotsunami, wind setup within the lagoon, inter-decadal, inter-annual and seasonal (IDAS) sea level variability, 655 relative sea level rise.…”

Section: Some Examples Of Forecasting Past Storm Surge Events In Venicementioning

confidence: 99%

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The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty

Umgiesser

Bajo

Ferrarin

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice relies crucially on a good flood forecasting system in order to protect the extensive cultural heritage, their population, and their economic activities. Storm surge forecasting systems are in place to warn the population of imminent flood threats. In the future, it will be of paramount importance to increase the reliability of these forecasting systems, especially with the new MOSE mobile barriers that will be completed by 2021, and will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of European storm surge forecasting is reviewed. The challenges that lie ahead for Venice and its forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. Some extreme events that happened in the past and were particularly difficult to forecast are also described.

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Extreme events in Venice and in the North Adriatic Sea: 28–29 October 2018

Cited by 15 publications

References 15 publications

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

Flood Mitigation in Mediterranean Coastal Regions: Problems, Solutions, and Stakeholder Involvement

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty

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