Extreme Climate Event Changes in China in the 1.5 and 2 °C Warmer Climates: Results From Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling

Li, Donghuan; Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun

doi:10.1029/2018jd028835

Cited by 37 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…When combining the stabilized response of extreme temperature in China to 1.5 °C/2.0 °C global warming with the results based on transient simulations in previous studies 11,15,41,42 , we can find that the areal-mean extreme temperatures over China show an increase larger than their global counterpart in both stabilized and transient simulations, and key regions are located in Northwest and Northeast-North China; while WSDI increases mostly in Southeast China, FD decreases mostly in the Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that the response of these regions to global warming is robust, that is, these regions are truly more sensitive to global warming and will suffer severe effects, whether under which warming scenarios.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

Sun

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are ‘transient simulations’ and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006–2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

Sun

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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“…In other regions elsewhere, such as East Asia, North America, Europe, and Australia, there have been extensive studies on climate change impacts at 1.5 and/or 2 °C of global warming (e.g., H. Chen & Sun, ; King & Karoly, ; King et al, ; Li, Zhou, et al, ; Li, Zou, & Zhou, ; Yohe, ). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C may have benefits of avoiding 35–46% of the increases in extreme temperature events in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency across East Asia (Li, Zhou, et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

et al. 2019

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With anthropogenic global warming, heat‐related extreme events are projected to increase in severity and frequency. Already vulnerable regions like Africa will be hard‐hit. Therefore, such regions could benefit from low global warming levels. Using the Community Earth System Model low warming simulations, we investigate changes in temperature extremes across Africa as a function of global mean temperature in the context of the implications of the Paris Agreement's targets. A significant warming across Africa is projected at the 1.5 °C warming world and is amplified at the 2 °C world, exceeding the mean global warming rate. Specifically, North Africa and East Africa regions are projected to have the highest and lowest temperature changes of 0.63 °C (0.60–0.67 °C) and 0.50 °C (0.47–0.54 °C), respectively, between the 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Consequently, hot events are also estimated to increase with global warming. We showed that limiting warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C may lead to 29% (27–31%) to 35% (33–37%) reduction in severity of hot events and to 31% (30–33%) to 42% (39–48%) reduction in the frequency of the threshold‐based high‐temperature events across Africa. The highest reductions are projected over North Africa. Furthermore, restricting warming to 0.5 °C lower than 2 °C might also result in 28% (34–40%) to 37% (25–34%) reduction in severity of once‐in‐10/20‐year heat events across Africa with North Africa having the highest benefits than tropical regions. Thus, restricting warming to low levels may indeed translate to substantial benefits of reduced intensity and frequency of extreme heat events across Africa.

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“…King et al 2017, Nangombe et al 2018, Zhang et al 2018, Zhou et al 2018. Among them, the CMIP (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project) models and dynamical downscaling with regional models have been widely used to access changes in precipitation extremes in different regions of the world (King et al 2017, Zhang and Villarini 2017, Aerenson et al 2018, Chevuturi et al 2018, Dosio and Fischer 2018, Li et al 2018b, Li et al 2018c, Li et al 2018d, Nikulin et al 2018, Zhou et al 2019. Results from the HAPPI (Half-a-degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) project (Mitchell et al 2017) have also been used to reveal mean precipitation changes in East Asia (Lee et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme precipitation over East Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets: a comparison of stabilized and overshoot projections

Zhou

Zhang

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Highly populated East Asia is vulnerable to extreme precipitation. Here, we use Community Earth System Model low-warming simulations to examine how extreme precipitation events may change in East Asia under the Paris Agreement global warming targets. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase markedly over East Asia in the warmer climates. Limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5°C, in comparison with 2°C, will reduce the risks of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity in East Asia by 26%-31%, with the greatest reductions (38%-54%) in Japan. A brief overshoot of the 1.5°C target would affect Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula and Japan from the aspects of regional average. More than 25% of the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in these regions can be avoided during the end of the 21st century (2081-2100) if there is no temperature overshoot, according to the best estimate. Vertical moisture advection is the main contributor to changes in precipitation-minus-evaporation in East Asia in the warmer climates. The increased low-level specific humidity and cyclonic circulation changes are the dominant thermodynamic and dynamical processes that contribute to the increase of precipitation over South China and Japan. Our work suggests that limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot is beneficial to minimizing the impacts associated with precipitation extremes across East Asia.

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Extreme Climate Event Changes in China in the 1.5 and 2 °C Warmer Climates: Results From Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling

Cited by 37 publications

References 41 publications

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

High‐Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa Under 1.5 and 2 °C of Global Warming

Extreme precipitation over East Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets: a comparison of stabilized and overshoot projections

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