Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling

Bleischwitz, Raimund; Nechifor, Victor; Winning, Matthew; Huang, Beijia; Geng, Yong

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.008

Cited by 67 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Current trajectories of material and energy use, whether suggesting decoupling of resource use from economic growth or not, cannot be correctly interpreted without considering past material and energy flows on which they are also based. Current stagnation in per capita territorial/production-based resource use (Fishman et al 2016, Bleischwitz et al 2018a), for example, depends on past material flows and entail a substantial legacy for the future (Krausmann et al 2017c). Since some materials enter the socio-economic system to be consumed for their energy content while others are for building up stock (manufactured capital) (Haas et al 2015), it may well be that different strategies are needed to observe, analyse, and set targets for decoupling material use of these two streams.…”

Section: Synthesis Of Insights Into Past Decouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, so far, no consensus could be achieved on many important conceptual questions. It remains unclear whether saturation should be defined as country totals or per capita, whether consumption-or production-based flows (or material stocks) should be stabilized, and whether saturation should be achieved at the same level for all countries (Müller et al 2011, Pauliuk et al 2013, Chen and Graedel 2015, Fishman et al 2016, Cao et al 2017, Bleischwitz et al 2018a. Moreover, stabilization at a high level may fall short of achieving many sustainability and climate targets.…”

Section: Synthesis Of Insights Into Past Decouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights

Haberl

Wiedenhofer

Virág

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

494

239

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Strategies toward ambitious climate targets usually rely on the concept of 'decoupling'; that is, they aim at promoting economic growth while reducing the use of natural resources and GHG emissions. GDP growth coinciding with absolute reductions in emissions or resource use is denoted as 'absolute decoupling' , as opposed to 'relative decoupling' , where resource use or emissions increase less so than does GDP. Based on the bibliometric mapping in part I (Wiedenhofer et al, 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 063002), we synthesize the evidence emerging from the selected 835 peer-reviewed articles. We evaluate empirical studies of decoupling related to final/useful energy, exergy, use of material resources, as well as CO 2 and total GHG emissions. We find that relative decoupling is frequent for material use as well as GHG and CO 2 emissions but not for useful exergy, a quality-based measure of energy use. Primary energy can be decoupled from GDP largely to the extent to which the conversion of primary energy to useful exergy is improved. Examples of absolute long-term decoupling are rare, but recently some industrialized countries have decoupled GDP from both production-and, weaklier, consumption-based CO 2 emissions. We analyze policies or strategies in the decoupling literature by classifying them into three groups:(1) Green growth, if sufficient reductions of resource use or emissions were deemed possible without altering the growth trajectory.(2) Degrowth, if reductions of resource use or emissions were given priority over GDP growth. (3) Others, e.g. if the role of energy for GDP growth was analyzed without reference to climate change mitigation. We conclude that large rapid absolute reductions of resource use and GHG emissions cannot be achieved through observed decoupling rates, hence decoupling needs to be complemented by sufficiency-oriented strategies and strict enforcement of absolute reduction targets. More research is needed on interdependencies between wellbeing, resources and emissions.

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Section: Synthesis Of Insights Into Past Decouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Synthesis Of Insights Into Past Decouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights

Haberl

Wiedenhofer

Virág

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

494

239

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Indeed, we assume that the iron and steel demand in China starts a gradual and continuous decline at around 2015 (Fig. 3b) as a per capita income value of about US $ 12,000 has been reached that had been decisive for a saturation across other economies (Bleischwitz and Nechifor 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3b) shows the extent of the saturation effect in China (Bleischwitz and Nechifor 2016) -an analysis of which does not yet seem to be part of e.g. UNEPs International Resource Panel trends analysis (UNEP 2017;Hatfield-Dodds et al 2017: 408).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While we admit this is not yet sufficiently addressed in our model as of now and a general challenge for most (if not all) macro-economic models, we intend to do such updates of parameters in due time. A first step we incorporate in this paper the saturation effect as it has been analysed by historical time series (Bleischwitz and Nechifor 2016).…”

Section: General Model Structure and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

Winning

Calzadilla

Bleischwitz

et al. 2017

Int Econ Econ Policy

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A number of recent economic modelling studies have attempted to analyse resource efficiency and the circular economy. However, modelling analysis in this area is relatively underdeveloped. In particular, many CGE models are unable to provide significant insight given their aggregated sectoral coverage. Here we describe the development of the Environmental Global Applied General Equilibrium (ENGAGEmaterials) model created to consider the economic and sectoral effects of potential policies on a circular economy and resource efficiency, which affect materials and resources at the stages of extraction, production and recycling. Our policy scope is global with a special emphasis on China and Europe, as both regions have dedicated policies in place and indicate their willingness to take the lead. The case of steel is relevant as it is a key material for all economies across the world and offers a range of interesting features for circularity and sustainability. ENGAGE-materials models iron ore mining, primary production of iron and steel, secondary production of iron and steel, and steel scrap recycling at the global level. We utilise this technology rich framework to provide preliminary results on scenarios comprising economic insights into a saturation effect and straightforward policy such as doubling the availability of secondary steel.

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Resource Consumption and Decoupling

Lefèvre¹

2021

Mineral Resources Economics 2

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Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling

Cited by 67 publications

References 29 publications

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights

Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

Resource Consumption and Decoupling

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