Extraction of trajectory contextual factors and its application in the trajectory prediction using statistical methods

Abstract

As stated by Schuster and Ochieng in [4], "a lack of understanding of TP and Conflict Detection and Resolution driver uncertainties (especially contextual, and aircraft state, operational and performance uncertainties)" was one the primary limitations of TP tools supporting functionalities envisaged in the initial SESAR Concept of Operations (ConOps)[13].TP's performance is dependent on the input data. In an aircraft-centric trajectory predictor, the input data are the initial state, aircraft-specific parameters, some contextual factors such as meteorological conditions and operational constraints, and finally, the aircraft-intent information.