Extraction and Analysis of Grasshopper Potential Habitat in Hulunbuir Based on the Maximum Entropy Model

Abstract

Grasshoppers have profound effects on both grassland ecosystems and livestock production. Despite commendable efforts made by China in grasshopper control, completely eradicating or preventing them still remains a distant prospect. This study aims to analyze the ecological distribution and patterns of grasshopper occurrences in order to provide more accurate monitoring techniques and preventive measures. By considering four types of environmental determinants—meteorology, vegetation, soil, and topography—we systematically identified 18 key influencing factors. These factors encompass various developmental stages of grasshoppers, including variables such as temperature, precipitation, vegetation coverage, vegetation type, soil moisture, soil salinity, soil type, and terrain characteristics. The MaxEnt model is employed in this study to comprehensively capture complex ecological interactions. Omission curves, Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC curves), and the Area Under the Curve (AUC values) demonstrate the robustness and high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Our research results indicate that meteorological factors are the primary influencing factors for the distribution of grasshoppers, surpassing the effects of vegetation, soil, and terrain. Precipitation and vegetation type emerge as key factors shaping their distributional patterns. Integrating the Sen-MK trend method, our findings identify the epicenter of damage primarily within the central, southern, and northeastern regions, notably affecting locales such as New Barag East County and the Ewenki Autonomous Banner. While their impact in 2012 was particularly severe, temporal trends indicate a decreasing risk of grasshoppers in specific regions, with escalated activity observed in other areas. The empirical insights from this study lay a solid foundation for the development of monitoring and control strategies concerning grasshoppers. Furthermore, the derived theoretical framework serves as a valuable foundation for future research endeavors addressing grasshopper infestations.