Extracting Rare Failure Events in Composite System Reliability Evaluation Via Subset Simulation

Hua, Bowen; Bie, Zhaohong; Au, Siu‐Kui; Li, Wenyuan; Wang, Xifan

doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2014.2327753

Cited by 50 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…In its more specific type of use [18], the MCMC is used within the evaluation of the limit state function, with the advantage of modelling intermediate events and enabling optimization of the sampling via subset simulation. However, such approach requires the system under analysis to have states with stationary probability distribution, which is hardly true for socio-technical systems that depend on human agents and do not run on a continuous basis.…”

Section: Motivation and Structure Of This Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Extremely Rare Accidents in Complex Systems

Oliveira¹,

Musiak²

2019

IEEE Trans. Rel.

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Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident cases are hard to find. Such analysis needs some variance reduction technique and several algorithms exist for that, however specific model features may cause difficulties in practice, such as the case of system models where independent agents have to autonomously accomplish missions within finite time, and likely with the presence of human agents. For handling these scenarios, this paper presents a novel estimation approach, based on the combination of the wellestablished variation reduction technique of Interacting Particles System (IPS) with the long-standing optimization algorithm denominated DIviding RECTangles (DIRECT). When combined, these two techniques yield statistically significant results for extremely low probabilities. In addition, this novel approach allows the identification of intermediate events and simplifies the evaluation of sensitivity of the estimated probabilities to certain system parameters.

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Section: Motivation and Structure Of This Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Extremely Rare Accidents in Complex Systems

Oliveira¹,

Musiak²

2019

IEEE Trans. Rel.

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“…AC power flow formulation was approximated in [132] to be able to consider active and reactive power in the reliability evaluation of HL2. The computational burden was reduced in [140] by extracting significant system states. Additional capabilities were added to HL2 reliability evaluation after applying Bayesian networks in [133].…”

Section: Studies On Evaluation Efficiency and Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extracting Rare Failure Events in Composite System Reliability Evaluation Via Subset Simulation. [140] Proposed a framework for reliability evaluation of composite power systems with subset simulation. The states with significant contribution to reliability indices were extracted to accelerate the simulation.…”

Section: Accelerated State Evaluation and Latin Hypercubementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increase in the scale of modern power systems stimulates actions to improve simulation efficiency and overcome computational burdens. Many studies reduced simulation time to facilitate reliability evaluation of large-scale applications [17,19,124,126,132,139,140,149].…”

Section: Motivations Related To Power System Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A combination of intelligent state-space pruning and sequential MCS need to be investigated to determine time-dependent parameters, such as renewable energy resources [134]. The subset simulation based method presented in [140] could be improved to include chronological simulation and obtain area and bus indices.…”

Section: Recommendations To Researchersmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A Systematic Review of Reliability Studies on Composite Power Systems: A Coherent Taxonomy Motivations, Open Challenges, Recommendations, and New Research Directions

et al. 2018

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Power systems has been subjected to significant upgrades in terms of structure and capacity. Reliability evaluation of composite power systems has surfaced as an essential step in operation and planning stages of the modern power system. It is an effective tool to investigate the ability of power systems to supply customers with reliable power service. The purpose of this review is to enhance the knowledge of reliability studies conducted on composite power systems by providing a critical and systematic review. This work investigates peer-reviewed articles published between 2007 and 2017 in three reliable databases. The findings reveal that the reliability of composite power systems has received considerable attention over the last few years. Secondly, investigation studies demonstrated a crucial role in verifying the impact of adopting new technologies. Third, studies on this topic have been intensively conducted in Asia, which highlights the promising sectors in these regions. However, researchers have generally focused on developing several aspects (e.g., evaluation speed and wind power integration) at the expense of others (e.g., realistic studies and other renewable energy resources). The lack of practical applications is evident in the surveyed publications. These findings imply a potential incoordination between the needs of the real applications and researchers’ tendencies. Future reliability evaluation scholars are advised to consider the findings of this systematic review including concentrating on insufficiently covered topics and enhance the coordination among the efforts devoted in this area.

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Multivariate alarm systems to recognize rare unpostulated abnormal events

Sudarshan,

Seider,

Patel

et al. 2023

AIChE Journal

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Most chemical and manufacturing plants have safety/reliability systems in place that are well equipped to handle commonly occurring postulated abnormal events, but often prove to be ineffective in predicting highly unanticipated and randomly occurring unpostulated abnormal events. In this paper, an advisory system is developed to analyze and recognize such events, consisting of novel, multivariate alarm systems and response actions introduced using process modeling and path‐sampling for unpostulated abnormal events. It augments existing safety/reliability systems, suggesting actions when unanticipated abnormal events are approached. Forward‐flux sampling (FFS), developed to discover rare molecular dynamics pathways, is applied. With an approximate process model, for an exothermic continuous‐stirred tank reactor using a perturbed feed concentration, the FFS algorithm is applied to identify rare trajectories between high‐conversion and low‐conversion steady‐states, with key process variables saved at various “crossing points.” Then, committer probabilities, , are computed at each crossing point, yielding a mathematical model that expresses as a function of the key process variables; that is, the reactor temperature (T), cooling‐water flow rate (), and cooling‐water temperature (), selected as choices for the primary alarm variables. For these, alarm thresholds; that is, L—low, LL—low low, and LLL—low low low, are suggested by computing their critical ranges, given the ranges for every alarm threshold.

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Extracting Rare Failure Events in Composite System Reliability Evaluation Via Subset Simulation

Cited by 50 publications

References 38 publications

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Extremely Rare Accidents in Complex Systems

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Extremely Rare Accidents in Complex Systems

A Systematic Review of Reliability Studies on Composite Power Systems: A Coherent Taxonomy Motivations, Open Challenges, Recommendations, and New Research Directions

Multivariate alarm systems to recognize rare unpostulated abnormal events

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