External Validation of the Oakland Score for Predicting Safe Discharge in Patients Presenting With Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding at the William Harvey Hospital in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Introduction Lower gastrointestinal bleeds (LGIB) are defined by having a bleeding point in the gastrointestinal tract beyond the ligament of Treitz. The most common causes include diverticular bleeds, tumours, and colitis. There are no National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines regarding safe discharge of patients with LGIB. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness and safety of the Oakland score, as suggested by the British Society of Gastroenterology (BSG) guidelines, in patients presenting with LGIB at William Harvey Hospital. Methods Patients with LGIB who presented to Accident & Emergency or inpatient referral from January to December 2023 were included in this retrospective study. Data was extracted from patients’ Sunrise documentation. The Oakland score for each patient was calculated. Those with a score of ≤8 were deemed safe for discharge; those with a higher score were deemed unsuitable. Patients’ admission, discharges, and adverse outcomes, such as representation, blood transfusion, or further intervention, were investigated. Patients with no adverse outcomes were deemed to have had a safe discharge. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the Oakland score and adverse outcome (and therefore safe discharge) were calculated. Results A total of 123 patients were included. These led to a total of 144 LGIB presentations to the hospital. Twenty-nine patients had an Oakland score of ≤8; 21 (72.4%) cases were initially discharged with four representations (19.0%) and eight (27.6%) were admitted although none of these suffered from any adverse outcomes. For those who scored ≤8, 25 (86.2%) were therefore deemed to have had a safe discharge. A total of 115 had a score >8; 43 (37.4%) were initially discharged, 72 (62.6%) admitted and 41 (35.7%) experienced at least one adverse outcome including 16 (13.9%) representations, 21 (18.3%) blood transfusions, three (2.6%) surgical interventions and one (0.9%) endoscopic haemostasis. Out of the 115 cases which scored >8, 74 (64.3%) were deemed to have had a safe discharge. The AUROC for safe discharge was 0.84. Conclusion The Oakland score seems to be a safe and reliable tool for identifying LGIB patients who could be safely discharged home without hospital intervention. However, further research is required to assess whether a score of >8 could be used as many patients with a higher score did not experience adverse outcomes.