External Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict 6-Month Mortality for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

Chalkidis, George; McPherson, Jordan P.; Beck, Anna; Newman, Michael G.; Guo, Jiawen; Sloss, Elizabeth A.; Staes, Catherine J.

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.27193

JAMA Netw Open

2023

DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.27193

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External Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict 6-Month Mortality for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

George Chalkidis

Jordan P. McPherson

Anna Beck

et al.

Abstract: This prognostic study performed external validation of a machine learning model to predict 6-month mortality among patients with advanced solid tumors.

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Design of an interface to communicate artificial intelligence-based prognosis for patients with advanced solid tumors: a user-centered approach

Staes,

Beck,

Chalkidis

et al. 2023

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association

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Objectives To design an interface to support communication of machine learning (ML)-based prognosis for patients with advanced solid tumors, incorporating oncologists’ needs and feedback throughout design. Materials and Methods Using an interdisciplinary user-centered design approach, we performed 5 rounds of iterative design to refine an interface, involving expert review based on usability heuristics, input from a color-blind adult, and 13 individual semi-structured interviews with oncologists. Individual interviews included patient vignettes and a series of interfaces populated with representative patient data and predicted survival for each treatment decision point when a new line of therapy (LoT) was being considered. Ongoing feedback informed design decisions, and directed qualitative content analysis of interview transcripts was used to evaluate usability and identify enhancement requirements. Results Design processes resulted in an interface with 7 sections, each addressing user-focused questions, supporting oncologists to “tell a story” as they discuss prognosis during a clinical encounter. The iteratively enhanced interface both triggered and reflected design decisions relevant when attempting to communicate ML-based prognosis, and exposed misassumptions. Clinicians requested enhancements that emphasized interpretability over explainability. Qualitative findings confirmed that previously identified issues were resolved and clarified necessary enhancements (eg, use months not days) and concerns about usability and trust (eg, address LoT received elsewhere). Appropriate use should be in the context of a conversation with an oncologist. Conclusion User-centered design, ongoing clinical input, and a visualization to communicate ML-related outcomes are important elements for designing any decision support tool enabled by artificial intelligence, particularly when communicating prognosis risk.

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Design of an interface to communicate artificial intelligence-based prognosis for patients with advanced solid tumors: a user-centered approach

Staes,

Beck,

Chalkidis

et al. 2023

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association

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Patient and Caregiver Perceptions of an Interface Design to Communicate Artificial Intelligence–Based Prognosis for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

Sloss,

McPherson,

Beck

et al. 2024

JCO Clin Cancer Inform

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PURPOSE Use of artificial intelligence (AI) in cancer care is increasing. What remains unclear is how best to design patient-facing systems that communicate AI output. With oncologist input, we designed an interface that presents patient-specific, machine learning–based 6-month survival prognosis information designed to aid oncology providers in preparing for and discussing prognosis with patients with advanced solid tumors and their caregivers. The primary purpose of this study was to assess patient and caregiver perceptions and identify enhancements of the interface for communicating 6-month survival and other prognosis information when making treatment decisions concerning anticancer and supportive therapy. METHODS This qualitative study included interviews and focus groups conducted between November and December 2022. Purposive sampling was used to recruit former patients with cancer and/or former caregivers of patients with cancer who had participated in cancer treatment decisions from Utah or elsewhere in the United States. Categories and themes related to perceptions of the interface were identified. RESULTS We received feedback from 20 participants during eight individual interviews and two focus groups, including four cancer survivors, 13 caregivers, and three representing both. Overall, most participants expressed positive perceptions about the tool and identified its value for supporting decision making, feeling less alone, and supporting communication among oncologists, patients, and their caregivers. Participants identified areas for improvement and implementation considerations, particularly that oncologists should share the tool and guide discussions about prognosis with patients who want to receive the information. CONCLUSION This study revealed important patient and caregiver perceptions of and enhancements for the proposed interface. Originally designed with input from oncology providers, patient and caregiver participants identified additional interface design recommendations and implementation considerations to support communication about prognosis.

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External Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Predict 6-Month Mortality for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

Abstract: This prognostic study performed external validation of a machine learning model to predict 6-month mortality among patients with advanced solid tumors.

Cited by 2 publications

References 5 publications

Design of an interface to communicate artificial intelligence-based prognosis for patients with advanced solid tumors: a user-centered approach

Design of an interface to communicate artificial intelligence-based prognosis for patients with advanced solid tumors: a user-centered approach

Patient and Caregiver Perceptions of an Interface Design to Communicate Artificial Intelligence–Based Prognosis for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

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