Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Evaluating variability and uncertainty in radiological impact assessment using SYMBIOSE

“…Variability in the consumption features also directly impacts variability in the estimated doses. As discussed by Albrecht and Miquel (2010), it could be argued such insights could just as well be gained through a careful study of the input parameters and the equations without any probabilistic calculations. This could indeed be feasible for a very easy example, with few equations and parameters, as in this case-study.…”

“…Whereas Kirchner and Steiner (2008) provided very useful guidelines and recommendations to separate and quantify uncertainty and variability in radioecology, applications remain sparse in this field as well (e.g. Albrecht and Miquel, 2010;Jang et al, 2009;Neptune Company, 2011).…”

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of radionuclide migration through the engineered barriers of deep geological repository: Case of RBMK-1500 SNF

“…Besides various assessment-endpoints, the UA and SA results differ with their context (specifics of systems design (engineered barriers, geological environment, and ecosystems), system evolution scenarios, etc.). For instance, in [5], the assessment of human exposure due to unit release (1 Bq/yr) to well was considered where contaminated well water was used for drinking by humans and their livestock and for irrigation of soils), while in [6] the source term of contaminants was assumed to be contaminated river water which was used for the livestock, irrigation and drinking. With various model output being analysed, different system evolution and radionuclide transport scenarios being considered, case specific ranking of the most important parameters is usually reported.…”

“…These applications vary a lot as they depend on the specific objectives set for the analysis, disposal system design, regulatory requirements, etc. The published results of UA and SA indicate their application on different scales (e.g., near field ( [3], [4]), far field, biosphere ( [5], [6]), total system ( [7], [8])). For instance, in [3], the impact of parameter uncertainties on the radionuclide flux from the engineered barriers of the Swedish repository for SNF was analysed.…”

“…In the case of geological repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada (USA) for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, the regulatory criteria for the evaluation of system safety is defined in terms of mean and median dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual, thus extensive (with 392 epistemically uncertain variables) UA and SA were carried out to evaluate dose uncertainty and the main contributors to its uncertainty [8]. On the other hand, other studies, such as reported in [5], [6], are oriented to the uncertainty of various parameters of radionuclide transport in biosphere and human related parameters and their impact on the resulting exposure dose (and flux to dose conversion factors subsequently). The published results of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within the context of repository performance also indicate that different model outputs are being analysed (peak flux [3], released amount of radionuclides at particular times [4], peak dose [7], dose over time [8], as well as physical parameters influencing the further transport of the contaminant to environment (e.g.…”