Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

Bonnot, Thomas W.; Thompson, Frank R.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.026

Cited by 34 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…We delineated local populations by combining existing demographic and environmental data (Real and Mañosa 1997, Carrascal and Seoane 2009, Galicia et al 2010) with data from our own field experience with the species. Despite not corresponding to highly isolated patches, as is generally used in metapopulation terminology, the local populations we identified did allow for spatial structure based on demographically relevant units (also see Carrete et al 2008, Bonnot et al 2011. To address the questions posed in our study, the following local populations were considered: (1) 12 monitored populations located across the western European range of Bonelli's Eagle used to estimate vital rates (Fig.…”

Section: Definition Of Local Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite being a crucial element in most population models (MacArthur and Wilson 1967, Levins 1969, Pulliam 1988, Hanski 1999, there are still significant deficiencies in our understanding of behavioral and spatial variation in dispersal (MacDonald andJohnson 2001, Clobert et al 2009). This gap in our knowledge means that only rarely in population viability assessments has much attention been paid to dispersal (but see McCarthy et al 2000, Lindenmayer et al 2003, Schtickzelle et al 2005, Bonnot et al 2011). In the case of long-lived species, in which dispersal may occur across large geographical ranges and over relatively long periods of time, the quantification of dispersal is particularly challenging and, consequently, this factor has been misrepresented in empirical studies in the literature, illustrating the role of dispersal in shaping the spatial structure of populations (Oro et al 2004), especially over broad spatial scales.…”

Section: General Implications For Population Viability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In heterogeneous habitats, the population growth rate of these local populations differs and thus may generate source-sink dynamics, characterized by the existence of sink populations (in which deaths outnumber births) whose persistence depends on dispersal from source populations (in which births outnumber deaths) (Pulliam 1988). Although empirical data have provided strong support for the main assumptions behind the metapopulation paradigm, metapopulation viability analyses still only represent a minority of the PVAs that are carried out (but see McCarthy et al 2000, Lindenmayer et al 2003, Schtickzelle et al 2005) and rarely have they accounted for metapopulations ranging over broad geographical areas (Gonzalez-Suarez et al 2006, Bonnot et al 2011). This gap is due in part to the difficulties inherent in modeling complex spatially structured populations, but also in part to the difficulty of obtaining detailed demographic information from multiple local populations arrayed across broad spatial scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

Hernández‐Matías

Real

Moleón

et al. 2013

Ecological Monographs

101

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Abstract. Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a sourcesink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre-adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long-term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi-site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.

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Section: Definition Of Local Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: General Implications For Population Viability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

Hernández‐Matías

Real

Moleón

et al. 2013

Ecological Monographs

101

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“…By using parameters that are either directly or indirectly linked to recently available world climate data (Hijmans et al 2005), conservationists have employed SDMs to predict future landscapes (Pereira et al 2010). SDMs have identified corridors between protected areas that would allow movement across temperature gradients (Nuñez et al 2013), determined functional redundancy in protected area establishment (Gallagher et al 2013), linked key demographic metrics with global change models and prioritized critical habitats (Bonnot et al 2011), and allowed planning for increased frequency of extreme weather events in order to conserve an endangered species (Bateman et al 2012). With effective conservation planning focused on insuring redundancy and resiliency for sustainable future populations (Redford et al 2011), SDMs are a valuable tool to the conservation community.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The stakeholder process strives to recognize and accept the limits within which land and animal usage will allow persistence of the target population. PHVAs have been incorporated into a metapopulation schema, where sources and sinks for populations are temporally and spatially variable due to shifting resources (Bonnot et al 2011). This linking of population parameters with environmental change across a landscape holds much potential for SDMs that seek to predict the future viability of critical species (Elith & Leatherwick 2009;Franklin 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

What are the roles of species distribution models in conservation planning?

McShea¹

2014

Envir. Conserv.

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The development of species distribution models (SDMs) has benefited biodiversity conservation through their linkage of science to policy and decision processes. These models have evolved to provide scenarios of future landscapes based on known and projected environmental parameters. Whereas there are many caveats to their use, the persuasive power of the models for conveying the consequences of environmental change to the non-science community is immense. Scientists are obliged to convey the uncertainty of the futures depicted in their models, but also to involve the stakeholders who will shape those future conditions. Stakeholders can identify the natural resources they want to sustain, voice their priorities in environmental policy, and articulate the range of solutions they are willing to accept. The creation of alternative futures is an academic exercise if not linked to real viable decisions concerning important resources. SDMs only reach their full potential when they bring together scientists, public stakeholders and policy makers, and are used as an adaptive management tool to understand complex landscapes that are undergoing short- and long-term change.

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Dynamic‐landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

2017

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Citation: Bonnot, T. W., F. R. Thompson III, and J. J. Millspaugh. 2017. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change. Ecosphere 8(7):e01890. 10.1002/ecs2.1890Abstract. The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation models (DLMPs) to predict responses of two declining songbird species in the central hardwoods region of the United States to changes in forest conditions from climate change. We modeled wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and prairie warbler (Setophaga discolor) population dynamics and distribution throughout the central hardwoods based on estimates of habitat and demographics derived from landscapes projected through 2100 under a current climate scenario and two future climate change scenarios. Climate change, natural forest succession, and forest management interacted to change forest structure and composition over time, variably affecting the distribution and amount of habitat of the two birds. The resulting changes in habitat and metapopulation processes produced contrasting predictions for future populations. Wood thrush, a forest generalist, showed little response to climate-driven forest change but declined by >25% due to reduced productivity associated with existing forest fragmentation across much of the region. Prairie warblers initially declined due to loss of habitat resulting from current land management; however, after 2050 cumulative effects of climate change on forest structure created enough habitat in source landscapes to restore population growth. These species-specific responses were the result of interactions among climate, landscape, and population processes. We suggest relationships between climate change, succession, and land management are species specific and important determinants of future wildlife populations and that DLMPs are a comprehensive approach that can capture such processes to generate more realistic predictions of populations under climate change.

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Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

Cited by 34 publications

References 47 publications

From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

From local monitoring to a broad‐scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli's Eagle in western Europe

What are the roles of species distribution models in conservation planning?

Dynamic‐landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

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