Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh

Webster, Peter J.; Jian, Jing‐Xin; Hopson, T. M.; Hoyos, Carlos D.; Agudelo, Paula; Chang, Hai-Ru; Grossman, Robert L.; Palmer, Tim; Subbiah, A. R.

doi:10.1175/2010bams2911.1

Cited by 105 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This engagement can improve important relationships between users and climatologists and enhance the development of advanced forecasting systems (Nyong et al 2007;Orlove et al 2010). For example, Webster et al (2010) generated flood forecasts and communicated them using thresholds that the Bangladeshi users could relate to. The researchers had to gain knowledge of these thresholds and integrate it into the forecasting system at a local level.…”

Section: But Why Ask the Locals?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complementing Scientific Monsoon Definitions with Social Perception in Bangladesh

Stiller-Reeve

Syed

Spengler

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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The monsoon onset is a critical event in the Bangladesh calendar, especially for the domestic agricultural sector. Providing information about the monsoon onset for the past, present, and future has potential benefit for a country so vulnerable to changes in climate. But, when does the monsoon start? To produce any scientific information about monsoon onsets, lengths, and withdrawals, we first need to apply a monsoon definition to our data. Choosing a scientific definition is not such a simple exercise in Bangladesh. Different definitions lead to different monsoon onsets and thereby also monsoon lengths. If a climate application aims to provide information about the monsoon onset, then we need to understand how the people who might use this information perceive the monsoon onset. We then need to understand how their perceptions compare with previous scientific work. In this study we carried out a structured questionnaire in six rural regions around Bangladesh and asked the local agriculturists how they defined the monsoon and when they thought it started. It turns out that the agriculturists and previous scientific publications do not necessarily agree. Our results do not undermine previous scientific work on the monsoon in Bangladesh, but they do carry an important message about how we should design, implement, and evaluate climate applications in Bangladesh that encompass the monsoon onset.

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Section: But Why Ask the Locals?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate applications may also constitute the major part of an adaptation-oriented project. Webster et al (2010) designed and implemented a forecasting system to increase the rural community adaptive capacity to the risk of imminent floods. This project was also primarily funded by agencies external to Bangladesh.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Complementing Scientific Monsoon Definitions with Social Perception in Bangladesh

Stiller-Reeve

Syed

Spengler

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…In order to improve lead-time and reliability of existing forecasting, several explorative studies have been undertaken. Hopson and Webster (2010) and Webster et al (2010), for example, provided reliable probabilistic forecasts with the lead-time of 10-days. In addition, government has identified limitations of current dissemination mechanisms.…”

Section: Assessment Of Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

et al. 2015

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The flood risk is a function of the flood hazard, the exposed values and their vulnerability. In addition to extreme hydrological events, different anthropogenic activities such as extensive urbanization and land use play an important role in producing catastrophic floods.Considerations of both physical and social dimensions are therefore equally important in flood risk assessment. However, very often the risk assessment studies either focus on physical or social dimensions. In addition, the available studies often focus on economic valuation of only direct tangible costs. In this study, we provide an integrated flood risk assessment approach that go beyond valuation of direct tangible costs, through incorporating physical dimensions in hazard and exposure and social dimensions in vulnerability. The method has been implemented in the Dhaka City, Bangladesh, an area internationally recognized hotspot for flood risk. In this study, flood hazards for different return periods are calculated in spatial environment using a hydrologic model, HEC-RAS. Vulnerability is assessed through aggregation of various social dimensions i.e., coping and adaptive capacities, susceptibility. We assess vulnerability for both baseline and improved scenario. In the baseline scenario, current early warning for study area is considered. In the alternative scenario, the warning system is expected to improve. Aggregating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, risk maps (in terms of both tangible and intangible costs) of several return period floods are produced for both baseline and improved scenario. Compared to traditional assessments, the integrated assessment approach used in this study generates more information about the flood risk. Consequently, the results are useful in evaluating policy alternatives and minimizing property loss in the study area.

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“…Due to its agriculture-dominated socioeconomic infrastructure, India gives a high priority to the forecasting of the dry and wet spells in the monsoon season (Webster et al, 2010). During the monsoon season, evaporation over Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean provides the latent heat flux and produces a large quantity of precipitable water (Medina et al, 2010).…”

Section: Description Of the Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation- and numerical-analysis-based dynamics of the Uttarkashi cloudburst

et al. 2015

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Abstract. A Himalayan cloudburst event, which occurred on 3 August 2012 in the Uttarkashi (30.73 • N, 78.45 • E) region of Uttarakhand, India, was analyzed. The near-surface atmospheric variables were analyzed to study the formation, evolution, and triggering mechanisms of this cloudburst. In order to improve upon the understanding provided by the observations, numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with a single domain at 18 km resolution. The model was tuned using variation of different parameterizations (convective, microphysical, boundary layer, radiation, and land surface), and different model options (number of vertical levels, and spin-up time), which resulted in a combination of parameters and options that best reproduced the observed diurnal characteristics of the near-surface atmospheric variables. Our study demonstrates the ability of WRF in forecasting precipitation, and resolving synoptic-scale and mesoscale interactions. In order to better understand the cloudburst, we configured WRF with multiply nested two-way-interacting domains (18, 6, 2 km) centered on the location of interest, and simulated the event with the best configuration derived earlier. The results indicate that two mesoscale convective systems originating from Madhya Pradesh and Tibet interacted over Uttarkashi and, under orographic uplifting and in the presence of favorable moisture condition, resulted in this cloudburst event.

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Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh

Cited by 105 publications

References 31 publications

Complementing Scientific Monsoon Definitions with Social Perception in Bangladesh

Complementing Scientific Monsoon Definitions with Social Perception in Bangladesh

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

Observation- and numerical-analysis-based dynamics of the Uttarkashi cloudburst

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