Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina

Núñez, Lucas

doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…of vote wasting, see Núñez 2016). In many cases, the "tactical" choices that respondents report suggest that, when they say they were tactical, they mean that they had thought a bit about what they were doing.…”

Section: Tactical Protest Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Taxonomy of Protest Voting

Alvarez

Kiewiet

Núñez

2018

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

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Observers of elections often report that voters have engaged in protest voting. We find that “protest voting” refers to a wide range of behaviors, and we create a taxonomy of these phenomena. Support for fringe or insurgent parties is often labeled as protest voting. Voting theorists have used the term in a completely different way, identifying an unusual type of tactical voting as protest voting. Protest voting also occurs when voters cast blank, null, or spoiled ballots. There are also instances when protest voting is organized and directed by political elites. Finally, several countries provide voters with the option of casting a vote for “None of the Above,” which some see as a form of protest voting. In addition to developing this taxonomy, we discuss the analytical and empirical challenges confronting research on each type of protest voting.

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Section: Tactical Protest Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Taxonomy of Protest Voting

Alvarez

Kiewiet

Núñez

2018

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

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“…8 This approach and its variants have been used in similar problems of voter transition estimation for the United States and developing countries (e.g. Altman, 2002; Herron and Sekhon, 2005; King et al, 2008; Kopstein and Wittenberg, 2009; Lupu and Stokes, 2009; Núñez, 2016; Sandoval and Ojeda, 2023; Santucci, 2016).…”

Section: Hypotheses and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Stability of Electoral Preferences in Chile Since the Social Upheaval

Altman,

Díaz,

Engel

et al. 2023

Journal of Politics in Latin America

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A strong oscillation of electoral preferences took place in Chile between the election of the members of the Constitutional Convention in May 2021 and the election of the members of the Constitutional Council in May 2023. This is surprising because, until the national-scale social uprising in 2019, there was a broad consensus that Chile was a highly institutionalised party system where political preferences tended to be stable. In this research note, we study how the electoral choices made by citizens shifted between both elections, using the ecological inference approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model developed elsewhere. We find that a vast majority of the new voters that resulted from the compulsory voting policy implemented between both elections opted for centre-right to right-wing candidates. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether these new voters predominantly align with right-leaning ideologies or hold anti-systemic viewpoints.

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Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election

Romero

Pavía

Martín

et al. 2020

Journal of Applied Statistics

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Inferring electoral individual behaviour from aggregated data is a very active research area, with ramifications in sociology and political science. In this paper, a new approach based on linear programming is proposed to estimate voter transitions among parties (or candidates) between two elections. In contrast to other similar models previously suggested in the literature, our approach presents two important innovations. First, it explicitly deals with new entries and exits in the election census without assuming unrealistic hypotheses, enabling a reasonable estimation of vote transfers for young electors voting for the first time. We illustrate this in a real instance. Secondly, by exploiting the information contained in the model residuals, we develop a procedure to assess the level of uncertainty in the estimates. This significantly distinguishes our model from other linear and quadratic programming methods previously published. The method is illustrated estimating the vote transfer matrix between the first and second round of the 2017 French Presidential election and measuring its level of uncertainty. Likewise, compared to the most current alternatives based on ecological regression, our approach is considerably simpler and faster, and has provided reasonable results in all the actual elections to which it has been applied. Interested scholars can easily use our procedure with the aid of the 𝑅-function described at the bottom of this paper.

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Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

A Taxonomy of Protest Voting

A Taxonomy of Protest Voting

Citizens’ Stability of Electoral Preferences in Chile Since the Social Upheaval

Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election

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