Exposure model for European seismic risk assessment

Crowley, Helen; Despotaki, Venetia; Rodrigues, Daniela; Silva, Vítor; Toma-Dănilă, Dragoş; Riga, Evi; Καρατζέτζου, Άννα; Fotopoulou, Stavroula; Žugić, Željko; Sousa, Luísa Costa; Ozcebe, Sevgi; Gamba, Paolo

doi:10.1177/8755293020919429

Cited by 93 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…(Consiglio dei Ministri 1978), and this resulted in slightly bigger column sizes and higher amount of shear reinforcement. However, design seismic actions on structures within this period were highly heterogenous in both space and time (see for example Crowley et al 2020). For some Italian regions, seismic loads were introduced according to a 1976 law (Consiglio dei Ministri 1976), and similar provisions were introduced over time for other regions.…”

Section: Selected Case-study Framesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Material Property Uncertainties versus Joint Structural Detailing: Relative Effect on the Seismic Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Frames

2021

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This paper investigates the relative effect of material properties and structural details in the joint panels on seismic fragility of existing reinforced concrete (RC) frames. Five building classes with different structural details (particularly in the joint panels) and material characteristics are defined according to different past design codes, for a three-and a six-storey archetype geometry. Based on non-linear static or non-linear dynamic analysis procedures, results from the study show that the effect of structural details on seismic fragility of the considered structures is negligible for damage states involving an essentially-elastic behaviour. Conversely, this is much higher for the life-safety and near-collapse damage states, and it is considerably higher than the one due to materials. Therefore, in the diagnosis phase, higher emphasis should be given to on-site investigations on the actual reinforcement content/layout rather than to invasive material testing. The uncertainty related to the structural details described herein is practically related to the exterior, rather than interior, joint panels. Cover removal for one of those joints could potentially eliminate this specific uncertainty. As a practical action, a good practice for the in-situ testing of RC frames

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Section: Selected Case-study Framesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Material Property Uncertainties versus Joint Structural Detailing: Relative Effect on the Seismic Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Frames

2021

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“…Recently, the implementation of the GEM "mapping-schemes" for the analysis of aggregated data has been outlined in Yepes-Estrada et al (2017) and further implemented in the European Exposure model (Crowley et al 2020) and in the Global seismic risk model (Silva et al 2020). These mapping-schemes classify a building stock through desktop studies and expert elicitation into earthquake vulnerability classes.…”

Section: Top-down Approach: Building Class From the Analysis Of Aggrementioning

confidence: 99%

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Zapata¹,

Pittore²,

Cotton³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In seismic risk assessment the sources of uncertainty associated to building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. We are introducing that the degree of knowledge of a building portfolio can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach to acknowledge the epistemic uncertainty of its composition (i.e. proportions per building class). We are investigating the impact of such uncertainty on earthquake loss models through a novel approach based on an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement and scenario-based seismic risk simulations. We have found that the building class reconnaissance either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach) or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in statistical modelling of exposure. We successively show that the selection of the basic set of building classes is a major contribution to the uncertainties in the loss estimations given their dependence on specific fragility functions. If the set of fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods, cross-correlated ground motion fields are required for the vulnerability assessment which ultimately control the variability of the losses. When the exposure composition is poorly known due to, for instance, simplifications and assumptions over aggregated data, its absolute contribution to the loss uncertainties has been found to be larger than the one imposed by the spatially distributed cross-correlated ground motion fields. This work invites to redesign desktop exposure studies, while it also highlights the importance of a standardized iterative approach to exposure data collection and modelling.

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“…parishes), and the number of occupants per building was computed based on the average number of dwellings per building class and the average number of occupants per dwelling. Additional information concerning the exposure derivation procedure can be found in Crowley et al (2020). In addition to the information regarding the building stock, the estimation of the increase in the COVID-19 cases and related fatalities required detailed data regarding the number of confirmed cases, transmissibility factors, and mortality rates for Portugal.…”

Section: Description Of the Earthquake Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the estimation of the impact in terms of fatalities and population displaced by the aforementioned earthquake scenarios, the fragility functions proposed by Martins and Silva (2020) and the exposure model developed within the H2020 European SERA project (Crowley et al, 2020) were employed.…”

Section: Simulation Of Potential Covid-19 Spread Due To Seismic Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impact of earthquakes during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic

Silva

Paul

2020

Earthquake Spectra

Self Cite

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The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic caused a human and economic impact of unprecedented magnitude in contemporary history. In an effort to reduce the rate of infection, most governments implemented measures to increase social distancing and to strengthen the capacity of the healthcare system. The occurrence of earthquakes coincident with the pandemic may prevent the effective practice of such measures, and consequently cause an increase in the virus spread. This study analyzes the potential impact that seismic events may have on the infection rate within regions afflicted by both epidemics and earthquakes and explores open software packages that can be employed to simulate the impact of future destructive earthquakes on the spread of an emerging virus. Recent data on the number of confirmed cases at the national or subnational level were combined with a global seismic hazard and risk map to produce a combined index. This index highlights regions where preparedness and contingency plans should be developed to account for the possibility of COVID-19 outbreaks due to the earthquake impact.

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Exposure model for European seismic risk assessment

Cited by 93 publications

References 9 publications

Material Property Uncertainties versus Joint Structural Detailing: Relative Effect on the Seismic Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Frames

Material Property Uncertainties versus Joint Structural Detailing: Relative Effect on the Seismic Fragility of Reinforced Concrete Frames

Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

Potential impact of earthquakes during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic

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