Exports and GNP Causality in the Industrial Countries: 1950–1985

Afxentiou, Panos; Serletis, Apostolos

doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.1991.tb02095.x

Cited by 65 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…Jung and Marshall (1985) provide results from Grangercausality tests for developing countries that show the inability of export growth to forecast income growth. Similar evidence is provided by Afxentiou and Serletis (1991) for the 1950-1985 period for a group of 16 developed countries. Chow (1987) runs Sims-causality tests for a group of eight NICs that show bidirectional causality between export growth and manufacturing output.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

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Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland

Fountas¹

2000

Applied Economics Letters

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The objective of this paper is to test, for the export-led grcv/th hypothesis in Ireland over the last 40 years using the modern econometric analysis of nonstationary time series. We find that over the period there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and export volume and no evidence for the export-led growth hypothesis either. The analysis of the more recent 1981-1994 period provides strong evidence in favour of a long-run relationship between industrial production and export volume and Granger-causality from exports to output. These results support the export-led growth hypothesis over the last fifteen years and highlight the importance of export-promoting policies.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 63%

“…There are several channels that predict why export growth should temporally lead output growth (Jung andMarshall 1985, Afxentiou andSerletis 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland

Fountas¹

2000

Applied Economics Letters

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“…Mixed results were obtained in studies of Chow (1987), Jung and Marshall (1985), Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohtadi and Shabsigh (1991), Afxentiou and Serletis (1991), Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993), Love and Chandra (2005) 6 . While the works of Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993) and Chow (1987) support the hypothesis very strongly, studies of Jung and Marshall (1985), Afxentiou and Serletis (1991), Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohtadi and Shabsigh (1991) and Love and Chandra (2005) do not support the export-led growth thesis 7 .…”

Section: Empirical Studies Intended For Testing Export-led Growth Thesismentioning

confidence: 93%

Test of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: a Comparative Analysis on Turkey and Newly Developing Countries

Kösekahyaoğlu

2006

Business: Theory and Practice

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Abstract. The relation between exports and national income of a country has long been a frequently debated issue in both trade and growth theory. This issue is particularly important in providing arguments for 'free trade' (export-led growth) or 'protectionism' (import substitution) because presence of any causality between exports and income would imply supremacy of outward looking policies over inward looking policies. In order to test the export-led growth hypothesis, this work examines the relation between trade (exports and imports) and income for Turkey and seven newly developing countries using Granger causality analysis. Our results suggest that the export-led growth hypothesis is not supported only in cases of Argentina, and Brazil and that there is a strong unidirectional causality running from exports to growth for Turkey, the Czech Republic,

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“…Among the studies that have supported the export-led growth hypothesis are Michaely [1977], Balassa [1978], Feder [1982], Chow [1987], Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse [1993], Thornton [1997], Doyle [1998], and Xu [1998]. Other studies, such as Granger [1969], Sims [1972], Jung and Marshall [1985], Hsiao [1987], and Afxentiou and Serletis [1991], have not supported the export-led growth hypothesis.…”

mentioning

confidence: 94%