Exportação de produtos industrializados e taxa de câmbio: uma análise sob a ótica de hysteresis

Abstract

This work had as main objective to verify the existence of hysteresis in the Brazilian exportations of manufactured products. For this objective, a descriptive analysis of exporting industrial firms was initially carried through and the estimate of a tree of classification for the period of 1989-1997. These first analyses had demonstrated that existence of an asymmetry between the number of incoming firms in the period favorable to the exportations and the number of desisting firms in the not favorable period, giving evidences of the permanence/persistence of the exporting firms in the period of 1989-1997. Moreover, one evidenced an trend of "wait and see" of the firms in the export market for the period of 1990-1993 and induction to the exit of firms for the period of 1994-1997. After that, from aggregated data for the period of 1985-2003, a time serial analysis was carried through. These results had been corroborated that evidenced the of hysteresis hypothesis for some selected sectors, as much in the long-run as for short-run. Words keys: hysteresis, real exchange rate, exportation.. O termo constante (cte) é inversamente relacionado à elasticidade da demanda das indústrias, e essa por sua vez, está diretamente relacionada à estrutura do mercado.