Exploring uncertainty and risk in the accelerated response to a COVID-19 vaccine: Perspective from the pharmaceutical industry

Coudeville, Laurent; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Jollivet, Ombeline; Harris, Rebecca; Thommes, Edward W.; Druelles, Sophie; Chit, Ayman; Chaves, Sandra S.; Mahé, Cédric

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.10.034

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…We built on a previously published age-stratified compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 to examine the short-term impact of an immunisation program starting January 2021 in France [ 24 ]. Briefly, we expanded a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) structure to account for seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, levels of disease severity, and possibility of reinfection with reduced level of severity compared to the primary infection.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impact of introducing vaccines against COVID-19 under supply and uptake constraints in France: A modelling study

et al. 2021

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Background The accelerated vaccine development in response to the COVID-19 pandemic should lead to a vaccine being available early 2021, albeit in limited supply and possibly without full vaccine acceptance. We assessed the short-term impact of a COVID-19 immunization program with varying constraints on population health and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) needs. Methods A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model was calibrated to French epidemiological data. We defined several vaccine implementation scenarios starting in January 2021 based on timing of discontinuation of NPIs, supply and uptake constraints, and their relaxation. We assessed the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations averted, the need for and number of days with NPIs in place over the 2021–2022 period. Results An immunisation program under constraints could reduce the burden of COVID-19 hospitalizations by 9–40% if the vaccine prevents against infections. Relaxation of constraints not only reduces further COVID-19 hospitalizations (30–39% incremental reduction), it also allows for NPIs to be discontinued post-2021 (0 days with NPIs in 2022 versus 11 to 125 days for vaccination programs under constraints and 327 in the absence of vaccination). Conclusion For 2021, COVID-19 control is expected to rely on a combination of NPIs and the outcome of early immunisation programs. The ability to overcome supply and uptake constraints will help prevent the need for further NPIs post-2021. As the programs expand, efficiency assessments will be needed to ensure optimisation of control policies post-emergency use.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impact of introducing vaccines against COVID-19 under supply and uptake constraints in France: A modelling study

et al. 2021

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“…The success experienced by countries across the world has depended on the effectiveness of their COVID-19 public policies pertaining to healthcare, communication, education, motivation and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing. Given that the COVID-19 vaccine was not available in the early stages of the outbreak, public policies initially focused on various NPIs (e.g., lockdown, restrictions on mass gathering, bans on travel, border closing, testing, and contact tracing), and economic stimuli (e.g., donations, loans, and debt relief) were implemented to contain the pandemic and mitigate the associated risks [14][15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Daily Vaccinations (Million)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simultaneously, scientists and researchers worked on developing COVID-19 vaccines, which are critical to control virus diffusion, protect human lives, and ensure social and economic recovery [ 14 , 16 ]. The success of the COVID-19 vaccine production, distribution, and actual administration ultimately depends on the public acceptance of the vaccine amid viral misinformation, hesitancy, and fears of side effects and allergies [ 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Perceptions of COVID-19 Vaccines: Policy Implications from US Spatiotemporal Sentiment Analytics

et al. 2021

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There is a compelling and pressing need to better understand the temporal dynamics of public sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines in the US on a national and state-wise level for facilitating appropriate public policy applications. Our analysis of social media data from early February and late March 2021 shows that, despite the overall strength of positive sentiment and despite the increasing numbers of Americans being fully vaccinated, negative sentiment towards COVID-19 vaccines still persists among segments of people who are hesitant towards the vaccine. In this study, we perform sentiment analytics on vaccine tweets, monitor changes in public sentiment over time, contrast vaccination sentiment scores with actual vaccination data from the US CDC and the Household Pulse Survey (HPS), explore the influence of maturity of Twitter user-accounts and generate geographic mapping of tweet sentiments. We observe that fear sentiment remained unchanged in populous states, whereas trust sentiment declined slightly in these same states. Changes in sentiments were more notable among less populous states in the central sections of the US. Furthermore, we leverage the emotion polarity based Public Sentiment Scenarios (PSS) framework, which was developed for COVID-19 sentiment analytics, to systematically posit implications for public policy processes with the aim of improving the positioning, messaging, and administration of vaccines. These insights are expected to contribute to policies that can expedite the vaccination program and move the nation closer to the cherished herd immunity goal.

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“…The coronavirus outbreak has drastically changed global social norms and has brought about disruptions in health services provision (Chandir et al, 2020 ). Since the beginning of the disease outbreak, various strategies such as border closure, social distance, widespread testing, and homestay have been proposed by statesmen, the WHO, and other relevant centers to reduce the virus’s spread and cut its transmission chain (Coudeville et al, 2020 ). Some researchers, such as Govindan et al ( 2020 ), have tried to reduce this disease’s prevalence by classifying people in the community and offering solutions to each class of people.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mathematical programming approach for equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution in developing countries

et al. 2021

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Developing countries scramble to contain and mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and world leaders demand equitable distribution of vaccines to trigger economic recovery. Although numerous strategies, including education, quarantine, and immunization, have been used to control COVID-19, the best method to curb this disease is vaccination. Due to the high demand for COVID 19 vaccine, developing countries must carefully identify and prioritize vulnerable populations and rationalize the vaccine allocation process. This study presents a mixed-integer linear programming model for equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution in developing countries. Vaccines are grouped into cold, very cold, and ultra-cold categories where specific refrigeration is required for their storage and distribution. The possibility of storage for future periods, facing a shortage, budgetary considerations, manufacturer selection, order allocation, time-dependent capacities, and grouping of the heterogeneous population are among the practical assumptions in the proposed approach. Real-world data is used to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the mathematical programming approach proposed in this study.

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Exploring uncertainty and risk in the accelerated response to a COVID-19 vaccine: Perspective from the pharmaceutical industry

Cited by 17 publications

References 14 publications

Potential impact of introducing vaccines against COVID-19 under supply and uptake constraints in France: A modelling study

Potential impact of introducing vaccines against COVID-19 under supply and uptake constraints in France: A modelling study

Public Perceptions of COVID-19 Vaccines: Policy Implications from US Spatiotemporal Sentiment Analytics

A mathematical programming approach for equitable COVID-19 vaccine distribution in developing countries

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