Exploring theoretical conditions for a steady-state global economy: A simulation model

Abstract

We use a simulation model to explore the theoretical impact of technology, recycling, household propensity for material consumption, and nature conservation policies on economic growth and possible stabilization of the global economy within biophysical boundaries. The model dynamics, which arise from the autocatalytic loop between production and household sectors that deplete finite natural resources, qualitatively reproduce historically observed global GDP growth. The simulation results show that a sustainable but unstable steady-state can be reasonably reached only by the simultaneous application of policies that increase nature conservation and promote environmentally efficient technologies, a circular economy, and less-intensive material lifestyles. These policy measures, if realized, would reflect the anticipatory behavior of the human system to prevent future hazards by taking adequate actions in the present. The unstable steady-state suggests long-term sustainability would depend on continuous behavioral, institutional, and policy adjustments rooted in anticipatory behavior.