Exploring the temporal travel choices: a joint modelling of how long to travel and when

Abstract

Many tourism travel decisions are interrelated. From modelling viewpoint incorporating these interrelations is important for understanding the consequences of exogenous shocks, as well as the intended and unintended consequences of policy. This paper addresses two tourist choices in the temporal dimension that were previously only handled as if they were mutually exclusive. The paper adopts a discrete-continuous model framework to simulate tourists' behaviours in selecting travel seasons (choice model) and associated trip duration (accelerated failure time model) and estimates the correlation between these two tourism decisions conditional on the covariates. The empirical analysis is based on Australian domestic tourism data and reveal the factors influencing both decisions as well as those that influence only one or the other. The model results, which is tested with data from select years between 1999-2018, including years of significant exogenous shocks, show mixed evidence of stability and changes in the parameters. Building on this evidence, the paper concludes with underlying temporal choice behaviours of tourists that may be of relevance during-and post-COVID19 environment.

Understanding the Value of Tourism to Seniors’ Health and Positive Aging

“…Survival rates were higher for those choosing camping as their main form of accommodation, and road transport as their preferred mode of transportation. In terms of decision-making, Li et al [39] used a discrete-continuous model framework to simulate tourist behavior in choosing a travel season (choice model), and the associated travel length of stay (accelerated lapse time model). They established a correlation between the two travel decisions conditional on covariates, finding that seniors' leisure and travel activities were associated with longer air travel and higher income, whereas higher income was associated with a shorter length of stay.…”

“…They established a correlation between the two travel decisions conditional on covariates, finding that seniors' leisure and travel activities were associated with longer air travel and higher income, whereas higher income was associated with a shorter length of stay. Building on the results of previous research (Ashrafi et al [38] and Li et al [39]), this study explored the mechanisms underlying the health effects and mortality risks of travel by seniors using an applied survival analysis model oriented to a longitudinal data cohort on time-to-event orientation.…”

The Application of a Two-Stage Decision Model to Analyze Tourist Behavior in Accommodation

“…Four variables have been selected to represent tourism behavior, including days of the trip, travel season, travel date, and favorite activity during the trip. Li et al (2021) revealed that tourists' behaviors in selecting travel seasons and the associated trip duration were influenced by a few factors and the correlation between these two tourism decisions was conditional upon the covariates. Dellaert et al (1998) argued that tourists may be restricted by school holidays when choosing the period in which to travel.…”