Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model

Abstract

Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.

Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China

“…Many modeling studies have not only discussed and explained the relationship between mumps and meteorological factors, vaccination rates, etc. but have also predicted trends in mumps incidence in the coming years ( 13 – 16 ). These studies have led to a common view that the mumps epidemic remains serious and MMR vaccination coverage should be increased.…”

Epidemiological characteristics of mumps from 2004 to 2020 in Jiangsu, China: a flexible spatial and spatiotemporal analysis

“…A study in Jining [ 33 ] reported a linear relationship of mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration and daily wind speed with mumps incidence when exceeding a certain threshold. Another study [ 34 ] found a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong, and analogical correlations were identified in some other studies in China [ 35 – 37 ]. Nonetheless, no similar research has been carried out to analyse the correlation of mumps incidence and meteorological factors in Jiangsu, the potential association still can be summarised by the distribution map of mumps incidence and spatial autocorrelation results in this study.…”

Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China

“…Temperature can directly affect the state of virus proteins and genes and is the most important factor affecting virus survival. In other cities in China, the temperature is one of the most important factors affecting mumps [ 8 , 28 , 29 , 30 ]. A conducted study in Taiwan showed that, when the temperature was 20 °C, the cases of mumps began to increase, and the cases of mumps began to decline at 25 °C [ 10 ].…”