Exploring the Predictors of Co-Nationals’ Preference over Immigrants in Accessing Jobs—Evidence from World Values Survey

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an exploration of the most resilient influences determining the attitude regarding prioritizing co-nationals over immigrants for access to employment. The source data were from the World Values Survey. After many selection and testing steps, a set of the seven most significant determinants was produced (a fair-to-good model as prediction accuracy). These seven determinants (a hepta-core model) correspond to some features, beliefs, and attitudes regarding emancipative values, gender discrimination, immigrant policy, trust in people of another nationality, inverse devoutness or making parents proud as a life goal, attitude towards work, the post-materialist index, and job preferences as more inclined towards self rather than community benefits. Additional controls revealed the significant influence of some socio-demographic variables. They correspond to gender, the number of children, the highest education level attained, employment status, income scale positioning, settlement size, and the interview year. All selection and testing steps considered many principles, methods, and techniques (e.g., triangulation via adaptive boosting (in the Rattle library of R), and pairwise correlation-based data mining—PCDM, LASSO, OLS, binary and ordered logistic regressions (LOGIT, OLOGIT), prediction nomograms, together with tools for reporting default and custom model evaluation metrics, such as ESTOUT and MEM in Stata). Cross-validations relied on random subsamples (CVLASSO) and well-established ones (mixed-effects). In addition, overfitting removal (RLASSO), reverse causality, and collinearity checks succeeded under full conditions for replicating the results. The prediction nomogram corresponding to the most resistant predictors identified in this paper is also a powerful tool for identifying risks. Therefore, it can provide strong support for decision makers in matters related to immigration and access to employment. The paper’s novelty also results from the many robust supporting techniques that allow randomly, and non-randomly cross-validated and fully reproducible results based on a large amount and variety of source data. The findings also represent a step forward in migration and access-to-job research.