Exploring the Potential of Forecasting Fish Distributions in the North East Atlantic With a Dynamic Earth System Model, Exemplified by the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting

Miesner, Anna Katharina; Brune, Sebastian; Pieper, Patrick; Koul, Vimal; Baehr, Johanna; Schrum, Corinna

doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.777427

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…A majority of work has focussed on the open ocean rather than the coastal shelf-seas where the most of human interactions with the ocean take place. Nevertheless, studies that have examined the predictability of shelf seas and coastal marine ecosystems have shown potentially useful skill at interannual to multi-year timescales (Stock et al, 2015;Tommasi et al, 2017b;Koul et al, 2021Koul et al, , 2022Miesner et al, 2022).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

et al. 2023

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Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

et al. 2023

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“…have led to a decline in suitable spawning grounds (Quinones et al, 2015). It is therefore critical to locate these spawning grounds to restore and protect targeted fish species (Boucek et al, 2017;Miesner et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial suitability evaluation of spawning reach revealing the location preference for fish producing drifting eggs

Zhou

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Hydrologic (water temperature) and hydrodynamic (water depth, flow velocity, and Froude number) factors affect fish spawning activities, and spawning grounds provide suitable hydrologic and hydrodynamic conditions for fish spawning to occur. However, locating fish spawning grounds is encumbered by uncertainty, particularly for pelagic spawners. This may be because such fish species have unique hydrologic and hydrodynamic requirements during their spawning periods, resulting in the wide-ranging approaches used to locate their spawning grounds. Accordingly, this study was designed to accurately locate fish spawning grounds through means of spatial suitability evaluation. For this experiment, the four major “Asian carp” target species were selected in the Dongta spawning reach, a tributary of the Pearl River. First, we investigated the historical information on the location of the spawning reaches. An acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used to measure topographic and hydrodynamic data of the spawning reaches during the spawning period. Then, based on the spatial clustering method, cluster analysis on spatial attributes (water depth, flow velocity, water temperature, and Froude number) was conducted on potential spawning grounds. The cluster analysis method uses k-means clustering; a method often employed to classify large amounts of data. Finally, we analyzed and evaluated the spatial suitability of spawning reaches by combining fish spawning suitability curves to obtain spatial preferences associated with fish spawning activities. Proportionally, results revealed a high suitability (>0.4) area (60.86%). Moreover, spawning suitability in curved river sections and deep pools in straight river sections were significantly higher than bifurcated sections. Furthermore, areas near the riverbanks were more suitable than mid-course sections of the river. Finally, the locations of six potential Asian carp spawning grounds were determined according to their spatial suitability. This study provides technical support to accurately locate spawning grounds for the fish that produce drifting eggs.

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Impact of ocean data assimilation on climate predictions with ICON-ESM

et al. 2022

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We develop a data assimilation scheme with the Icosahedral Non-hydrostatic Earth System Model (ICON-ESM) for operational decadal and seasonal climate predictions at the German weather service. For this purpose, we implement an Ensemble Kalman Filter to the ocean component as a first step towards a weakly coupled data assimilation. We performed an assimilation experiment over the period 1960–2014. This ocean-only assimilation experiment serves to initialize 10-year long retrospective predictions (hindcasts) started each year on 1 November. On multi-annual time scales, we find predictability of sea surface temperature and salinity as well as oceanic heat and salt contents especially in the North Atlantic. The mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is realistic and the variability is stable during the assimilation. On seasonal time scales, we find high predictive skill in the tropics with highest values in variables related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. In the Arctic, the hindcasts correctly represent the decreasing sea ice trend in winter and, to a lesser degree, also in summer, although sea ice concentration is generally much too low in both hemispheres in summer. However, compared to other prediction systems, prediction skill is relatively low in regions apart from the tropical Pacific due to the missing atmospheric assimilation. Further improvements of the simulated mean state of ICON-ESM, e.g. through fine-tuning of the sea ice and the oceanic circulation in the Southern Ocean, are expected to improve the predictive skill. In general, we demonstrate that our data assimilation method is successfully initializing the oceanic component of the climate system.

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Exploring the Potential of Forecasting Fish Distributions in the North East Atlantic With a Dynamic Earth System Model, Exemplified by the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting

Cited by 4 publications

References 74 publications

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Spatial suitability evaluation of spawning reach revealing the location preference for fish producing drifting eggs

Impact of ocean data assimilation on climate predictions with ICON-ESM

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